IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel

Across country-years, higher WGI Regulatory Quality predicts higher average FDI net inflows as a share of GDP over the next three years after fixed effects and macro controls.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether regulatory quality is actually linked to better or worse fwd foreign investment income 3y avg from 1996 to 2021.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 59 country or place units from 1996 to 2021, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Regulatory quality
What we checked
  • Fwd foreign investment income 3y avg
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel
1007550250199620092021ALBARGAUSAUTBELBGDBRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_fdi_gdp_3y_avg across 59 sampled countries over 1996–2021.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 3fc4c7e · 2026-05-02T17:38:10Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:26Z

Across country-years, higher WGI Regulatory Quality predicts higher average FDI net inflows as a share of GDP over the next three years after fixed effects and macro controls.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if beta(regulatory_quality) >= 0.25 pp of GDP with p <= 0.10, and the top-minus-bottom RQ-tercile raw mean difference is >= 1.0 pp of GDP, with at least 800 observations and 40 countries.

formal test & threshold
test:      wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
59 countries · 1996 – 2021
Evidence type
associational

Generated Worker C first-tranche local-data panel verdict.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_fdi_gdp_3y_avg
outcome
local pinned vintage panelSupported if beta(regulatory_quality) >= 0.25 pp of GDP with p <= 0.10, and the top-minus-bottom RQ-tercile raw mean difference is >= 1.0 pp of GDP, with at least 800 observations and 40 countries.
regulatory_quality
treatment
local pinned vintage panelas predeclared in threshold

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across country-years, higher WGI Regulatory Quality predicts higher average FDI net inflows as a share of GDP over the next three years after fixed effects and macro controls.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if beta(regulatory_quality) >= 0.25 pp of GDP with p <= 0.10, and the top-minus-bottom RQ-tercile raw mean difference is >= 1.0 pp of GDP, with at least 800 observations and 40 countries.
  • Falsification test: wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local pinned vintage panel (outcome, name=fwd_fdi_gdp_3y_avg) — vintage not on disk
  • local pinned vintage panel (treatment, name=regulatory_quality) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Runnable via engine/runs/wgi_regulatory_quality_fdi_growth_panel/replication.py. Uses only pinned local BIS/OECD/WGI/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.