IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·wid_top_income_share_trade_openness_panel

Higher trade openness predicts higher top-income concentration in a country-year panel: after country and year fixed effects, log GDP per capita, population, and regulatory-quality controls, WDI trade as a share of GDP should be positively associated with the WID top 0.1 percent pre-tax income share.

The test is an associational screen of whether openness coincides with rising very-top income shares, not a causal estimate of trade shocks or a claim about post-tax inequality.

PARTIALengine/runs/wid_top_income_share_trade_openness_panel

PARTIAL — coef=+0.01497, p=0.184 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.01497, p=0.184 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 39 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade open income
What we checked
  • Top 0 1 pretax income share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

5 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/wid_top_income_share_trade_openness_panel
1007550250199620102023ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show top_0_1_pretax_income_share across 39 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wid_top_income_share_trade_openness_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wid_top_income_share_trade_openness_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:02Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher trade openness predicts higher top-income concentration in a country-year panel: after country and year fixed effects, log GDP per capita, population, and regulatory-quality controls, WDI trade as a share of GDP should be positively associated with the WID top 0.1 percent pre-tax income share. The test is an associational screen of whether openness coincides with rising very-top income shares, not a causal estimate of trade shocks or a claim about post-tax inequality.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the trade_open_gdp coefficient is positive and significant at p<0.10. REFUTED if it is negative and significant at p<0.10. PARTIAL otherwise. METHOD_VALID requires at least 500 observations, at least 25 countries, and at least 15 paired observations per country after all joins.

formal test & threshold
test:      PanelOLS(top_0_1_pretax_income_share ~ trade_open_gdp + log_gdp_pc_ppp + regulatory_quality + log_population + country_FE + year_FE), clustered by country
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
39 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed-effects panel using country and year effects, clustered by country. Primary coefficient is trade_open_gdp. Controls are log GDP per capita PPP, WGI regulatory quality, and log population. The run reports a descriptive high-trade quartile contrast as secondary context only.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
top_0_1_pretax_income_share
outcome
wid:top-0-1-share-of-total-incometier 3
level
trade_open_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
regulatory_quality
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_RQ.ESTtier 4
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — wid_top_income_share_trade_openness_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.01497, p=0.184 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher trade openness predicts higher top-income concentration in a country-year panel: after country and year fixed effects, log GDP per capita, population, and regulatory-quality controls, WDI trade as a share of GDP should be positively associated with the WID top 0.1 percent pre-tax income share. The test is an associational screen of whether openness coincides with rising very-top income shares, not a causal estimate of trade shocks or a claim about post-tax inequality.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the trade_open_gdp coefficient is positive and significant at p<0.10. REFUTED if it is negative and significant at p<0.10. PARTIAL otherwise. METHOD_VALID requires at least 500 observations, at least 25 countries, and at least 15 paired observations per country after all joins.
  • Falsification test: PanelOLS(top_0_1_pretax_income_share ~ trade_open_gdp + log_gdp_pc_ppp + regulatory_quality + log_population + country_FE + year_FE), clustered by country

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.01497
  • Std error: 0.01125
  • p-value: 0.184
  • Observations: 825, countries: 33
  • Within R²: 0.0765
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • wid:top-0-1-share-of-total-income → top_0_1_pretax_income_share (outcome, publisher=wid, n=3273)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_open_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_RQ.EST → regulatory_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5169)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:02+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Promoted from the Wave 2 Batch 30 plan as the first low-duplicate runnable WID/trade-openness candidate with fully local data. The on-disk targeted WID extract is top 0.1 percent, so this v1 pins that exact inequality concept rather than mixing it with top 1 or top 10 measures.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.