IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel

Resident patent applications predict stronger high-tech export performance in later country-year panels, even after accounting for non-resident patenting and export scale.

The claim tests whether domestic inventive activity has measurable trade follow-through.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.1756 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0387

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Does the policy environment make innovation easier to fund, build, and scale, or does it slow down useful new technology?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.1756 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0387

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1980 to 2021, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Resident patent applications
What we checked
  • High tech exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel
1007550250198020012021ARGAUSAUTBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_tech_exports across 30 sampled countries over 1980–2021.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:44Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Resident patent applications predict stronger high-tech export performance in later country-year panels, even after accounting for non-resident patenting and export scale. The claim tests whether domestic inventive activity has measurable trade follow-through.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if resident_patent_applications is positive at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if it is negative at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1980 – 2021
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE screen. Bespoke follow-up should lead high-tech exports by two years and distinguish resident from non-resident patenting quality.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_tech_exports
outcome
wits:high_tech_exportstier 2
log
resident_patent_applications
treatment
wipo:patent_applications_residenttier 2
log
nonresident_patent_applications
control
wipo:patent_applications_non_residenttier 2
log
export_scale
control
wits:export_value_constant_usdtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.1756 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0387

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Resident patent applications predict stronger high-tech export performance in later country-year panels, even after accounting for non-resident patenting and export scale. The claim tests whether domestic inventive activity has measurable trade follow-through.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if resident_patent_applications is positive at p<=0.10 with at least 300 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if it is negative at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_wipo_patent_applications_hightech_export_followthrough_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.1756
  • Std error: 0.08464
  • p-value: 0.0387
  • Observations: 444, countries: 30
  • Within R²: 0.331
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • wits:high_tech_exports → high_tech_exports (outcome, publisher=wits, n=3185)
  • wipo:patent_applications_resident → resident_patent_applications (treatment, publisher=wipo, n=4180)
  • wipo:patent_applications_non_resident → nonresident_patent_applications (controls, publisher=wipo, n=4505)
  • wits:export_value_constant_usd → export_scale (controls, publisher=wits, n=14446)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:44+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This is the cleanest WIPO/WITS bridge test from the first swarm pass because both sides are normalized country-year panels.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.