IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel

More concentrated export baskets predict weaker high-tech export performance.

The claim is that economies dependent on a narrow set of traded products have less follow-through into high-tech export upgrading after country and year effects are absorbed.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel

SUPPORTED — coef=-5.286 (sign matches claim -), p=7.91e-05

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-5.286 (sign matches claim -), p=7.91e-05

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 39 country or place units from 1988 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Export product hhi
What we checked
  • High tech exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel
1007550250198820062023ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_tech_exports across 39 sampled countries over 1988–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:44Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

More concentrated export baskets predict weaker high-tech export performance. The claim is that economies dependent on a narrow set of traded products have less follow-through into high-tech export upgrading after country and year effects are absorbed.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if export_product_hhi is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 250 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if export_product_hhi is positive at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
39 countries · 1988 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE screen. The high-tech export outcome is logged to reduce scale dominance by large exporters.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_tech_exports
outcome
wits:high_tech_exportstier 2
log
export_product_hhi
treatment
wits:export_product_hhi_witstier 2
level
export_hs6_products
control
wits:unique_hs6_productstier 2
log
merchandise_exports
control
wits:export_value_constant_usdtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-5.286 (sign matches claim -), p=7.91e-05

Pre-registration

  • Claim: More concentrated export baskets predict weaker high-tech export performance. The claim is that economies dependent on a narrow set of traded products have less follow-through into high-tech export upgrading after country and year effects are absorbed.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if export_product_hhi is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 250 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if export_product_hhi is positive at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_wits_export_concentration_hightech_drag_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -5.286
  • Std error: 1.329
  • p-value: 7.91e-05
  • Observations: 580, countries: 39
  • Within R²: 0.495
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • wits:high_tech_exports → high_tech_exports (outcome, publisher=wits, n=3185)
  • wits:export_product_hhi_wits → export_product_hhi (treatment, publisher=wits, n=4669)
  • wits:unique_hs6_products → export_hs6_products (controls, publisher=wits, n=5308)
  • wits:export_value_constant_usd → merchandise_exports (controls, publisher=wits, n=14446)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:44+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This spec is built from the WITS bridge rather than waiting on UN Comtrade product-diversity access.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.