IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·worker_coop_conversion_employment_preservation

Worker cooperative conversions (US Main Street Employee Ownership Act 2018, Italian Marcora Law 1985) preserve employment in firms that would otherwise close.

PARTIALengine/runs/worker_coop_conversion_employment_preservation

PARTIAL — ATT=+2.22e-15, p=0.717, N=66, treated_countries=2 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether coop conversion event is actually linked to better or worse firm survival indicator from 1985 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=+2.22e-15, p=0.717, N=66, treated_countries=2 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 2 country or place units from 1985 to 2023, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for firm and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Coop conversion event
What we checked
  • Firm survival indicator
  • Firm employment
  • Firm real wage
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/worker_coop_conversion_employment_preservation
1007550250198520042023USAITA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show firm_survival_indicator across 2 sampled countries over 1985–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for worker_coop_conversion_employment_preservation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/worker_coop_conversion_employment_preservation/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

8 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T15:07:38Z

Worker cooperative conversions (US Main Street Employee Ownership Act 2018, Italian Marcora Law 1985) preserve employment in firms that would otherwise close.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on Marcora and Main Street Act conversions vs matched-distress closure comparators 1985-2023; supported if 5y survival rate exceeds comparator by >20pp at p<0.10.

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
firm, year
Clustering
firm
Sample
2 countries · 1985 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Staggered DiD across worker-coop conversions (Italy Marcora-law conversions, US Main Street Employee Ownership Act) using matched-closure comparators (firms with similar pre-conversion distress signals that closed instead of converting). Outcomes: survival, employment, wages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
firm_survival_indicator
outcome
derived:firm_survival_paneltier 4
indicator
firm_employment
outcome
derived:firm_employment_paneltier 4
log
firm_real_wage
outcome
derived:firm_wage_paneltier 4
log
regional_cooperative_employment_share
outcome
eurostat:nama_10r_2emhrwtier 1
share
coop_conversion_event
treatment
derived:coop_conversion_datestier 4
indicator
matched_closure_pretrend
control
derived:matched_closure_donorstier 4
ratio
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — worker_coop_conversion_employment_preservation

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=+2.22e-15, p=0.717, N=66, treated_countries=2 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Worker cooperative conversions (US Main Street Employee Ownership Act 2018, Italian Marcora Law 1985) preserve employment in firms that would otherwise close.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: 2.220446049250313e-15
  • std_error: 6.122266882028954e-15
  • p_value: 0.7168412207861381
  • n_obs: 66
  • n_countries: 2
  • r_squared_within: 1.0
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 2
  • cohort_years: [1991]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • derived:firm_survival_panel → firm_survival_indicator (outcome, n=78)
  • eurostat:nama_10r_2emhrw → regional_cooperative_employment_share (outcome, n=9554)
  • derived:coop_conversion_dates → coop_conversion_event (treatment, n=78)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (controls, n=8071)

Missing data

  • derived:firm_employment_panel (outcome)
  • derived:firm_wage_panel (outcome)
  • derived:matched_closure_donors (controls)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T15:07:38+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a market-socialist school prediction about worker-coop conversion employment preservation. Self-selection into conversion is severe; needs human review of matched-comparator strategy.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.