IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·wto_accession_productivity_spillover_panel

WTO accession predicts total factor productivity (TFP) growth spillovers through increased import competition and expanded export market access, especially in episodes where domestic entry barriers also fall, in a panel of accession and non-accession countries 1995-2020.

The directional claim is that accession countries experience faster TFP growth in the 10-year post-accession window than matched non-accession peers, with the effect magnified when domestic product-market regulation (entry barriers) declines concurrently.

PARTIALengine/runs/wto_accession_productivity_spillover_panel

PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=-1.639e-15, p=0.587 (above α=0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=TWFE, coef=-1.639e-15, p=0.587 (above α=0.10)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 41 country or place units from 1995 to 2020, using a event study design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Wto accession indicator
  • Domestic entry barrier reduction
Possible pathway
  • Import penetration ratio
  • Export market access index
What we checked
  • Total factor productivity growth
  • Labour productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 3 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/wto_accession_productivity_spillover_panel
1007550250199520082020ALBCHNCOLECUGEOKHMLAO
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show total_factor_productivity_growth across 41 sampled countries over 1995–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wto_accession_productivity_spillover_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wto_accession_productivity_spillover_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T10:21:38Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

WTO accession predicts total factor productivity (TFP) growth spillovers through increased import competition and expanded export market access, especially in episodes where domestic entry barriers also fall, in a panel of accession and non-accession countries 1995-2020. The directional claim is that accession countries experience faster TFP growth in the 10-year post-accession window than matched non-accession peers, with the effect magnified when domestic product-market regulation (entry barriers) declines concurrently.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the ATT on TFP growth over the 10-year post-accession window is positive and significant at p<0.10, AND the effect is larger (by at least 50% in point estimate) for the subsample where domestic entry barriers also fell. PARTIAL if the main ATT is positive and significant but the interaction with entry-barrier reduction is insignificant (market access alone drives the effect). REFUTED if the ATT is negative and significant at p<0.10. INFORMATIVE: pre-trend coefficients t-5 to t-1 should be jointly insignificant; significant pre-trends invalidate the parallel-trends assumption.

formal test & threshold
test:      cs_did_wto_accession_tfp_spillover_with_entry_barrier_interaction
threshold: ATT (TFP growth, 10yr post) > 0 at p<=0.10  AND ATT_entry_barrier_fall >= 1.5 × ATT_entry_barrier_stable  AND Pre-trend F-test p >= 0.10.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
41 countries · 1995 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Event-study design with dynamic treatment effects estimated year-by-year from t-5 to t+10 relative to WTO accession. Parallel trends assessed via pre-trend coefficients. Primary estimator: Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD with not-yet-treated and never-treated controls. Secondary: synthetic DiD (Arkhangelsky et al.) for robustness to heterogeneous treatment effects. Interaction with domestic entry-barrier reduction estimated via subsample split and via explicit interaction term.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
total_factor_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
annual_log_change
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpotier 3
annual_log_change_per_worker
wto_accession_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 in accession year and 10-year post-accession windowtier 5
indicator
domestic_entry_barrier_reduction
treatment
oecd_pmr:ETCRtier 4
change_from_pre_accession
import_penetration_ratio
channel
wits:import_valuetier 2
ratio_to_gdp
export_market_access_index
channel
constructed:weighted foreign tariff faced by exportertier 5
level
initial_log_tfp
control
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_pre_accession_level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
infrastructure_quality
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — wto_accession_productivity_spillover_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=TWFE, coef=-1.639e-15, p=0.587 (above α=0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: WTO accession predicts total factor productivity (TFP) growth spillovers through increased import competition and expanded export market access, especially in episodes where domestic entry barriers also fall, in a panel of accession and non-accession countries 1995-2020. The directional claim is that accession countries experience faster TFP growth in the 10-year post-accession window than matched non-accession peers, with the effect magnified when domestic product-market regulation (entry barriers) declines concurrently.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the ATT on TFP growth over the 10-year post-accession window is positive and significant at p<0.10, AND the effect is larger (by at least 50% in point estimate) for the subsample where domestic entry barriers also fell. PARTIAL if the main ATT is positive and significant but the interaction with entry-barrier reduction is insignificant (market access alone drives the effect). REFUTED if the ATT is negative and significant at p<0.10. INFORMATIVE: pre-trend coefficients t-5 to t-1 should be jointly insignificant; significant pre-trends invalidate the parallel-trends assumption.
  • Falsification test: cs_did_wto_accession_tfp_spillover_with_entry_barrier_interaction
  • Event year: 1996

Estimate

  • coefficient: -1.6386704888336e-15
  • std_error: 3.0168435930119483e-15
  • p_value: 0.5870101232632214
  • n_obs: 651
  • n_countries: 31
  • r_squared_within: 1.0
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: event-study TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: 'wto_accession_indicator')
  • shape: multi_country_twfe
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → total_factor_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • pwt:rgdpo → labour_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 in accession year and 10-year post-accession window → wto_accession_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1066)
  • pwt:rtfpna → initial_log_tfp (controls, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • wgi:GE.EST → infrastructure_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11580)

Variables missing data

  • oecd_pmr:ETCR (treatment, name=domestic_entry_barrier_reduction)
  • world_bank_wits:import_value (decomposition_channels, name=import_penetration_ratio)
  • constructed: weighted foreign tariff faced by exporter (decomposition_channels, name=export_market_access_index)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-16T10:21:38+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data readiness: - PWT rtfpna, rgdpo, hc (ready) - WDI GDP pc, FDI inflows (ready) - WGI GE.EST (ready from 1996) - World Bank WITS import data (ready) - OECD PMR ETCR (ready for subset) - WTO accession dates (ready, public record)

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.