IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decomposition

Zimbabwean land reform 2000-2008 redistributed ownership to previously excluded populations; the inflation crisis was driven by external sanctions and fiscal-military pressures, not by the redistributive policy itself.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decomposition

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fast track land reform event is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation from 1995 to 2009.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1995 to 2009, using a panel fe decomposition design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fast track land reform event
Possible pathway
  • Land redistribution productivity channel
  • External sanctions channel
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation
  • Real income growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decomposition
1007550250199520022009ZWE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation across 1 sampled countries over 1995–2009.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decomposition. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decomposition/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:27Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Zimbabwean land reform 2000-2008 redistributed ownership to previously excluded populations; the inflation crisis was driven by external sanctions and fiscal-military pressures, not by the redistributive policy itself.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Variance-decomposition of ZWE 2000-2008 inflation across (land productivity, sanctions, fiscal-military, monetary financing) channels; sanctions+fiscal-military share >50% of variance with p<0.10 supports.

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Clustering
episode
Sample
1 countries · 1995 – 2009
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Decomposition of the Zimbabwe 2000-2008 inflation/output collapse into channels: (i) land- redistribution productivity hit, (ii) external sanctions (2002 ZIDERA, EU/Commonwealth measures), (iii) fiscal-military pressures (DRC war 1998-2003, war-veteran payments), (iv) monetary financing. Variance- accounting attributes inflation/output variance to each channel. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
hanke_tc:zimbabwe_monthly_inflationtier 3
pct_change_yoy
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
imf:NGDP_RPCHtier 2
pct_change_yoy
fast_track_land_reform_event
treatment
constructed:event date = 2000-02 (Fast Track Land Reform Programme launch)tier 5
event_date
land_redistribution_productivity_channel
channel
constructed:agricultural-output index pre/post fast-track 2000; faostat:QCtier 5
log_diff
external_sanctions_channel
channel
constructed:binary = 1 from 2002-03 (ZIDERA Act); EU/Commonwealth measures coded separatelytier 5
binary
fiscal_military_channel
channel
constructed:military spending pct GDP, DRC war 1998-2003, war-veteran payments 1997tier 5
level
monetary_financing_channel
channel
rbz:money_supplytier 3
log_diff
terms_of_trade
control
imf_pcps:PALLFNFtier 1
log_diff
drought_indicator
control
constructed:binary = 1 in major drought years (2002-2003, 2007-2008)tier 5
binary

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — zimbabwe_land_reform_cause_decomposition

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Zimbabwean land reform 2000-2008 redistributed ownership to previously excluded populations; the inflation crisis was driven by external sanctions and fiscal-military pressures, not by the redistributive policy itself.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Variance-decomposition of ZWE 2000-2008 inflation across (land productivity, sanctions, fiscal-military, monetary financing) channels; sanctions+fiscal-military share >50% of variance with p<0.10 supports.

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; hanke_tc:zimbabwe_monthly_inflation → cpi_inflation (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG; imf:NGDP_RPCH → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • constructed: agricultural-output index pre/post fast-track 2000; faostat:QC → land_redistribution_productivity_channel (decomposition_channels, publisher=faostat, n=290)
  • constructed: binary = 1 from 2002-03 (ZIDERA Act); EU/Commonwealth measures coded separately → external_sanctions_channel (decomposition_channels, publisher=constructed, n=15)
  • imf_pcps:PALLFNF → terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: event date = 2000-02 (Fast Track Land Reform Programme launch) (treatment, name=fast_track_land_reform_event) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: military spending pct GDP, DRC war 1998-2003, war-veteran payments 1997 (decomposition_channels, name=fiscal_military_channel) — vintage not on disk
  • rbz:money_supply; constructed: RBZ direct gov financing (decomposition_channels, name=monetary_financing_channel) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: binary = 1 in major drought years (2002-2003, 2007-2008) (controls, name=drought_indicator) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:27+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from Marxist-Leninist framing of Zimbabwe 2000-2008 inflation as driven by sanctions and fiscal-military pressure rather than land redistribution. Human review required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.