Pre-registration
Zimbabwean property-rights deterioration post-2000 (commercial-farm expropriation without compensation) precedes hyperinflation and output collapse; institutional mechanism is necessary, not merely monetary.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
formal test & threshold
test: Multi-metric checklist on ZWE 2000-2009: property-rights-index decline >1 SD precedes hyperinflation onset (Cagan threshold 50%) by >12 months with p<0.10 supports the institutional-channel claim.
Method
- Template
multi_metric_checklist- Clustering
episode- Sample
- 1 countries · 1995 – 2009
- Evidence type
- associational
Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Canonical-case multi- metric checklist for Zimbabwe 2000-2009: (i) commercial-farm expropriation timing (Fast Track 2000), (ii) institutional-quality indices (property rights, rule of law), (iii) hyperinflation onset (Cagan threshold), (iv) real-output collapse, (v) monetary aggregates. Pattern-test: institutional-deterioration metrics deteriorate before monetary collapse. Falsification rule, canonical_metrics array, and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
cpi_inflation outcome | world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2 hanke_tc:zimbabwe_monthly_inflationtier 3 | pct_change_yoy |
real_gdp_per_capita outcome | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2 maddison:gdp_per_capita_2011_intltier 3 | log_level |
hyperinflation_onset_indicator outcome | constructed:binary = 1 from month annual CPI > 50% (Cagan threshold); ZWE breaches in 2007tier 5 | binary |
fast_track_land_reform_event treatment | constructed:event date = 2000-02 (FTLRP launch); commercial-farm expropriation 2000-2002tier 5 | event_date |
property_rights_index treatment | fraser_efw:legal_system_property_rightstier 4 heritage_ief:property_rightstier 4 | level |
rule_of_law_wgi treatment | wgi:RL.ESTtier 4 | level |
m2_money_supply control | rbz:money_supplytier 3 | log_diff |
terms_of_trade control | imf_pcps:PALLFNFtier 1 | log_diff |
drought_indicator control | constructed:binary = 1 in major drought years (2002-2003, 2007-2008)tier 5 | binary |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — zimbabwe_property_rights_output_link
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
Reason: no canonical metrics available to evaluate
Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 7 of 0 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 3 met (impossible to hit support).
Counts: 0 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 0 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL
Primary country: ZWE
Metric-by-metric
| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes | |---|---|:---:|---:|---|---|
Claim
Zimbabwean property-rights deterioration post-2000 (commercial-farm expropriation without compensation) precedes hyperinflation and output collapse; institutional mechanism is necessary, not merely monetary.
Interpretation
Verdict is INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — 0 metric(s) cannot be evaluated because the underlying data source is not yet in the vintages pipeline, and 0 metric(s) have data but a threshold expression the auto-evaluator does not recognise (complex conditions, discrete event counts, cross-country gaps). Close these gaps then re-run.
Steelman live concerns
See `` for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.
Provenance
Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.
Notes
Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from institutionalist framing of Zimbabwe hyperinflation as property-rights-deterioration mechanism, not pure-monetary. Human review required.