IESET.
Hypotheses·housing·zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability

Upzoning and deregulation of single-family-only zoning predict faster permit growth and lower real rent growth than restrictive zoning.

PARTIALengine/runs/zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability

PARTIAL — coef=+5.117, p=0.78 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Does the housing rule being tested make homes easier to build, rent, or afford, or does it quietly reduce supply and push costs elsewhere?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+5.117, p=0.78 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Housing policy affects rents, mobility, household budgets, and construction. The test looks for measurable effects rather than relying on slogans.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability
1007550250199020072024USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:16Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Upzoning and deregulation of single-family-only zoning predict faster permit growth and lower real rent growth than restrictive zoning.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for NZL from 2016 onward; USA from 2019 onward; JPN from 2002 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+5.117, p=0.78 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Upzoning and deregulation of single-family-only zoning predict faster permit growth and lower real rent growth than restrictive zoning.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_zoning_deregulation_housing_affordability

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +5.117
  • Std error: 18.28
  • p-value: 0.78
  • Observations: 524, countries: 22
  • Within R²: 0.267
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_SPP → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=bis, n=2272)
  • constructed: 1 for NZL from 2016 onward; USA from 2019 onward; JPN from 2002 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1050)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:16+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.