Movements · argentina_de_la_rua_alianza_1999_2001 De la Rúa Alianza UCR-FREPASO — corralito, convertibility collapse, resignation ARG · 1999 – 2001· Alianza por el Trabajo, la Justicia y la Educación (UCR + FREPASO)
Leaders: Fernando de la Rúa (President Dec 1999 - Dec 2001) · Carlos 'Chacho' Álvarez (Vice President 1999-2000; resigned) · José Luis Machinea / Ricardo López Murphy / Domingo Cavallo (Economía) · Pedro Pou (BCRA until April 2001)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Centre-left coalition inheriting fragile convertibility + recession, collapsing into banking crisis and forced resignation. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Fiscal-austerity recession management — Machinea impuestazo Dec 1999 tax package; López Murphy 18-day finance ministry (March 2001) proposed deeper university + spending cuts; provoked cabinet split. (b) Cavallo megacanje June 2001 — $29.5B debt swap extending maturities at ~15% yields; Ley de Déficit Cero (Ley 25.453, 30 Jul 2001) cut public-sector wages/pensions 13%. (c) Senate bribery scandal Aug 2000 — accusations of coima payments for labour-reform vote; VP Álvarez resigned 6 Oct 2000 rupturing coalition. (d) Corralito 3 Dec 2001 — Decreto 1570/2001 froze bank withdrawals at $250/week; triggered 19-20 December cacerolazo mass protests; 27 deaths nationwide; IMF refused further disbursement 5 December. (e) Resignation 20 December 2001 — De la Rúa resigned by helicopter; Ramón Puerta (Senate) + Adolfo Rodríguez Saá (23-30 Dec, declared default on $95B) + Eduardo Camaño + Eduardo Duhalde rotation completed within 12 days. Stated school: social-democratic fiscal consolidation under currency-board constraint. Left-right: centre to centre-left rhetorically, orthodox operationally. Popularity: October 1999 first-round 48.4% vs Duhalde 38.1%; approval crashed to ~20% by mid-2001; 14 Oct 2001 midterms Alianza ~23%, Peronist ~37%, 20%+ blank/void votes (voto bronca). Coherence: trade Alianza unity and social-democratic programme for orthodox-under-duress convertibility defence that ruptured coalition, collapsed deposits, and triggered regime exit.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ↓
spending level → fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · strong
lower spending share
Déficit Zero 13% wage+pension cut; prior cuts across 2000-2001.
↓
property rights → institutional.property_rights
Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.
decreased · strong
weaker property rights
Corralito froze deposits; bank-contract breach.
↓
central bank independence → monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
decreased · moderate
lower independence (fiscal dominance, politicised appointments)
Pou dismissed April 2001; currency-board defence crumbled.
↓
rule of law → institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
Senate bribery scandal; VP resignation; mass unrest and forced presidential exit.
Policies enacted · ar_machinea_impuestazo_1999 · ar_blindaje_imf_2000 · ar_megacanje_debt_swap_2001 · ar_deficit_zero_law_2001 · ar_corralito_2001 What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.
not yet written currency_board_exit_dynamics
not yet written austerity_political_economy
Schools of thought aligned or opposed References Ley 25.453 Déficit Cero Decreto 1570/2001 Corralito Blustein (2005) And the Money Kept Rolling In Notes Overlaps argentina_default_collapse_2001_2002 (failure-movement file); this file owns the governance narrative of the collapse.
IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.