IESET.
Movements·brazil_sarney_pmdb_1985_1990

Sarney PMDB — Cruzado, Bresser, Summer heterodox stabilisation

BRA·19851990·PMDB-PFL Aliança Democrática (Nova República civilian transition)
Leaders: José Sarney (President 1985-1990, ascended after Tancredo Neves's death) · Francisco Dornelles / Dílson Funaro / Luiz Bresser-Pereira / Maílson da Nóbrega (Fazenda, four ministers) · Fernando Henrique Cardoso (Senator; Constituent Assembly leader) · Ulysses Guimarães (Constituent Assembly President)
positionspost_keynesianchicago_monetarismempirical_pragmatist

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Civilian-transition PMDB government that combined Constituent Assembly democratisation with four failed heterodox inflation plans. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Cruzado Plan (28 February 1986, Decreto-Lei 2.283) — heterodox shock: peg wages and prices, replace cruzeiro with cruzado at 1,000:1, eliminate indexation; inflation fell 15%→zero monthly by March-April 1986; consumption boom; abandoned late 1986 after PMDB's 15 November midterm electoral sweep; hyperinflation returned peaking ~80% monthly by early 1987. (b) Bresser Plan (June 1987) and Summer Plan (15 January 1989, cruzado → cruzado novo at 1,000:1) — successive heterodox attempts, each failing within months. (c) 1988 Constitution (promulgated 5 October 1988) — universalist welfare-state framework (SUS health, social security, earmarked spending, indexation of benefits); civil-rights progress paired with fiscal-rigidity time-bombs. (d) External default stance — February 1987 Moratorium on external interest payments to commercial banks; reversed September 1988. (e) Loss of monetary control — monthly inflation hit 84% in March 1990; 1989 CPI 1,972% annualised. Stated school: CEPAL-structuralist heterodoxy (Bresser, Arida, Lara-Resende, Lopes, Nakano) + PMDB catch-all democratic politics. Left-right: centre to centre-left on 1988 Constitution, mixed on macro. Popularity: Cruzado honeymoon pushed Sarney approval to ~80% mid-1986 — PMDB won 22/23 governorships and massive Congressional majority November 1986 — collapsed to <10% by 1989; banned from 1989 direct elections; Collor won December 1989 runoff 53% vs Lula 47%. Coherence: heterodox-stabilisation-first bet repeatedly failed; 1988 Constitution's institutional achievement survived hyperinflation legacy.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

monetary expansion direction
monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
increased · strong
expansionary (balance sheet, rates lower than Taylor)
Hyperinflation 1,972% 1989 after four failed plans.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
1988 Constitution universalised SUS health, social-security indexation, earmarked spending.
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · moderate
looser financial regulation
Price-wage freezes under heterodox plans; capital-flow controls.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · strong
stronger rule of law
1988 Constitution; civilian transition from military rule; direct-election amendment movement 1984.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Debt monetisation; earmarked mandatory spending in new constitution.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
heterodox_stabilisation_effectiveness
not yet written
constitutional_mandate_fiscal_rigidity

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
post_keynesian
Bresser, Arida, Lara-Resende structuralist heterodox school.

References

Notes

Heterodox stabilisation laboratory; pairs institutional success (1988 Constitution) with macro failure (1,972% 1989 CPI).