IESET.
Movements·chile_bachelet_ii_nm_2014_2018

Bachelet II — Nueva Mayoría reformist wave (Chile 2014-2018)

CHL·20142018·Nueva Mayoría (PS + PPD + DC + PRSD + PC + MAS + IC) — first post-1990 coalition to formally include the Partido Comunista alongside the Christian Democrats
Leaders: Michelle Bachelet (President 2014-2018, second non-consecutive term) · Alberto Arenas (Finance Minister 2014-2015) · Rodrigo Valdés (Finance Minister 2015-2017) · Nicolás Eyzaguirre (Finance Minister 2017-2018, previously Education Minister 2014-2015) · Adriana Delpiano (Education Minister from 2016) · Ximena Rincón (Labour Minister 2014-2016)
positionssocial_democraticpost_keynesianempirical_pragmatist

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centre-left Nueva Mayoría coalition (Socialists, Christian Democrats, Communists, PPD, Radicals) elected on a "structural reform" platform framed around three "transformative" pillars: tax reform to finance social spending, education reform ending for-profit and co-pay schooling and introducing gratuidad (tuition-free tertiary), and a new constitution to replace the 1980 Pinochet-era charter. Self-described as the end of the Concertación gradualist model and a social-democratic turn to correct the inequality legacy of the Chicago Boys' market architecture. Key enacted policies: Reforma Tributaria (Ley 20.780, September 2014) raising corporate tax from 20% to 27% and introducing the semi-integrated / attributed-income regimes; education reform (Ley de Inclusión Escolar 20.845, 2015; Ley de Gratuidad 21.091, enacted 2018) phasing in free tertiary tuition for lower-income deciles; labour reform (Ley 20.940, 2016) strengthening unions and collective bargaining; pension reform adding a second solidarity pillar (Pilar Solidario expansion 2016) and raising employer contributions; abortion decriminalisation on three grounds (Ley 21.030, September 2017). The constitutional process (bases ciudadanas 2016; presidential draft April 2018) was handed to the incoming Piñera II government unpassed. Nueva Mayoría held 67/120 Cámara seats (2014-2018, 55.8%) and 21/38 Senado seats; Bachelet's approval fell from ~54% at inauguration to the 20s in 2016 amid the Caval influence-peddling scandal and recovered modestly to the mid-30s by end of term. Coherence: ambitious redistributive reform package partially enacted, with tax-reform revenue yield below target, education reform implementation disputes, and constitutional replacement punted to a later cycle.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
increased · moderate
higher corporate tax burden
Reforma Tributaria raised corporate rate from 20% to 25%/27% under the attributed and semi-integrated regimes.
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
increased · weak
more progressive (higher top rates, wider spread, larger targeted credits)
Top personal rate lowered from 40% to 35% but dividend integration regime raised effective progressive burden on high-income shareholders.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Pilar Solidario expansion and gratuidad tuition transfers widened the fiscal transfer footprint.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Social spending expansion financed partly by tax reform; total general-government spending rose ~2pp of GDP across the term.
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
decreased · moderate
less flexible (stronger employment protection)
Reforma Laboral strengthened union monopoly on bargaining, extended protections, restricted replacement of strikers.
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
decreased · moderate
looser licensing, more open entry
Ley de Inclusión Escolar phased out for-profit operation and selective admissions in state-subsidised schools; gratuidad conditioned accreditation.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

inconclusive
welfare_architecture_comparative_effectiveness
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'welfare_architecture_category' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
empirical_pragmatist
Reform ambition exceeded administrative implementation capacity in several files (education, tax).

References

Notes

Distinct movement record from Bachelet I (2006-2010) which ran a narrower Concertación coalition and whose flagship file was the 2008 AFP Pilar Solidario introduction. Nueva Mayoría (2014-2018) is coded as a reformist wave with moderate-positive moves on fiscal and licensing axes and moderate-negative move on labour flexibility. Constitutional replacement project handed to successor unpassed — Invariant-3 content-coding does not penalise this as it reflects coalition arithmetic, not intent.