IESET.
Movements·ecuador_moreno_2017_2021

Moreno post-Correa normalisation (Ecuador)

ECU·20172021·Alianza PAIS (pre-split) / post-correista independents
Leaders: Lenín Moreno (President 2017-2021) · Richard Martínez (Finance 2018-2020)
positionsempirical_pragmatistchicago_monetarism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Pragmatic-liberal post-Correa normalisation inside the binding constraint of dollarisation. Elected in Apr 2017 as Correa's designated successor on the Alianza PAIS ticket with 51.16% in the runoff, Moreno broke publicly with Correa within months and used the Feb 2018 referendum (seven questions, all approved 64-73%) to bar indefinite presidential re-election, restructure the Consejo de Participación Ciudadana, and re-open the judicial and electoral appointments that Correísmo had consolidated. Economic doctrine pivoted to IMF re-engagement: an Extended Fund Facility of USD 4.2bn was signed in Mar 2019, with a larger USD 6.5bn EFF in Sep 2020 after the pandemic shock. The Oct 2019 attempt to eliminate fuel subsidies via Decreto 883 triggered 12 days of indigenous-led riots (CONAIE) and was reversed; fiscal consolidation continued through public-payroll cuts, a 2020 external debt restructuring (~USD 17.4bn), and renewed trade engagement (Pacific Alliance associate, FTA talks). Institutional tone was de-concentration relative to Correísmo. Popularity collapsed after Oct 2019 and pandemic management — exit approval in single digits — and the movement did not carry a successor in 2021 (Arauz defeated in runoff by Lasso). Coherent as a post-populist IMF-anchored correction rather than a doctrinal program.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · moderate
lower spending share
IMF-anchored consolidation; public-payroll cuts and capex compression from 2019.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · weak
reduced sectoral subsidies
Fuel-subsidy cut attempted Oct 2019 via Decreto 883, reversed after protests; later partial adjustments.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · weak
more open trade
Pacific Alliance associate process; rollback of Correa-era safeguards.
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
increased · moderate
stronger judicial independence
2018 referendum restructured CPCCS and re-opened judicial council appointments Correa had consolidated.
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · weak
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
IMF programme re-imposed reserve-backing rules on BCE balance sheet.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
fiscal_consolidation_under_fixed_exchange_regime

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

References

Notes

Useful case of abrupt doctrinal reversal within the same coalition label — tests Invariant 3 (policy-content over party label).