Sánchez Cerén FMLN second government (El Salvador)

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Second consecutive FMLN government continuing the moderate-left trajectory of the 2009-2014 Funes administration: preserve the 1993-Constitution macro framework (dollarisation since 2001, open capital account, orthodox BCR), expand targeted social programmes (Paquete Escolar school uniforms and supplies, Ciudad Mujer gender-services programme, solidarity pension, rural electrification), sustain remittance-dependent external account, and manage deteriorating security with a mix of mano- dura crackdowns and a contested 2012-2014 gang truce with MS-13 and Barrio 18 that collapsed into record-high homicides — 103/ 100k in 2015 making El Salvador the world's most homicidal country outside active warzones. IMF relations were strained: no programme but periodic Article IV surveillance flagging pension-reform arrears, rising public debt toward 70% of GDP, and the Dec 2017 Asamblea Legislativa standoff over pension debt that triggered a credit-rating downgrade. Ideological positioning is centre-left social-democratic with populist rhetoric toward the FMLN base, but policy content was constrained by dollarisation, the ARENA-majority Legislative Assembly, and the Constitutional Chamber's willingness to strike down fiscal and security decrees. The movement preceded and was decisively rejected by the Bukele wave: FMLN collapsed from 31.7% in 2014 runoff (Sánchez Cerén 50.1%) to 14.4% in Feb 2019 (Hugo Martínez), ARENA from 49.9% to 31.7% (Carlos Calleja), and Bukele via GANA won 53.1% first-round ending the post-civil-war two-party system. Approval polling deteriorated from 51% (Jun 2014) to 26% (Mar 2018) on crime, corruption allegations against former FMLN president Funes (2014 fugitive in Nicaragua), and stagnant growth ~2.3%/yr. The IESET coding captures this as the counterfactual baseline against which the Bukele security, monetary, and fiscal transformations are measured.