IESET.
Movements·france_sarkozy_ump_2007_2012

Sarkozy UMP presidency — centre-right Gaullist 'rupture' (France)

FRA·20072012·Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP) with Nouveau Centre; UMP+allies comfortable Assemblée majority (~345/577 from June 2007)
Leaders: Nicolas Sarkozy (President 2007-2012) · François Fillon (PM 2007-2012) · Christine Lagarde (Economy/Finance 2007-2011) · François Baroin (Finance 2011-2012) · Éric Woerth (Budget/Labour; architect of 2010 pension reform)
positionsempirical_pragmatistordoliberalsocial_democratic

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centre-right Gaullist presidency branded as "rupture" with the French social-liberal equilibrium — campaigning on "travailler plus pour gagner plus", security, and state-reform, while remaining within the Fifth-Republic statist-executive tradition. Left-right axis: centre-right, with a clear pro-work/pro-capital tilt and Atlanticist foreign-policy re-alignment (NATO integrated command re-entry 2009). Signature content: Loi TEPA (Travail, Emploi, Pouvoir d'Achat) of 21 August 2007 — overtime-hours income-tax and social-contribution exemption ("défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires"), inheritance- tax exemption for spouses and €150k/child threshold, mortgage-interest tax credit, ISF bouclier fiscal capping total direct tax at 50% of income; RGPP (Révision générale des politiques publiques) 2007-2012 non-replacement of one retiring civil servant in two; university autonomy LRU law 10 August 2007; 2008 Loi de modernisation de l'économie (LME); 2008-2009 crisis response — bank recapitalisation SPPE, €26bn Plan de relance December 2008, GM/PSA/Renault support; 2010 pension reform raising legal age 60 → 62 and full-rate age 65 → 67 (enacted 9 November 2010 amid mass protests); auto-entrepreneur status 2009; TVA sociale / CSG-labour cost shift partially enacted late-mandate; nuclear and EPR continuation. Popularity: 1st-round 31.2% / 2nd-round 53.1% May 2007 vs Royal; approval from ~65% honeymoon 2007 to ~32-35% by late 2008 post-Bling-bling / bouclier fiscal controversy, recovering modestly during 2008-2009 crisis management, sagging to ~30% during 2010 pension reform, ending at ~36% pre-election; 1st-round 27.2% / 2nd-round 48.4% May 2012, losing to Hollande. UMP retained Assemblée majority throughout the mandate. Coherence judgement: doctrinally consistent pro-work, pro-capital, state-reform programme executed at scale (TEPA, RGPP, pensions) but compromised in perception by the bouclier fiscal distributional optics and by the 2008-2011 pivot to crisis-era interventionism and fiscal consolidation that muted the original supply-side story.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · moderate
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
Bouclier fiscal (50% cap on direct tax/income); inheritance-tax exemptions; overtime tax/social exemption.
tax capital
fiscal.tax_capital
Taxation of capital income (dividends, capital gains, inheritance, wealth). Distinct from corporate rate.
decreased · moderate
lower capital income tax
Inheritance-tax thresholds raised; ISF bouclier fiscal shield.
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · moderate
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
Loi TEPA overtime exemption relaxed 35-hour wall; 2008 rupture conventionnelle; 2010 pension-age increases.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
2008-2009 Plan de relance €26bn + bank recap; post-2010 fiscal consolidation only partially offset.
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · weak
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
LME 2008 easing entry/retail-pricing rules; auto-entrepreneur regime.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
unchanged · weak
LRU university autonomy institutional reform; no material change to judicial independence.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
schroder_style_reform_effectiveness

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
ordoliberal
Pension-reform and RGPP fiscal-discipline content.

References

Notes

Covers the full Sarkozy presidency. Predecessor to france_hollande_ps_2012_2017. The 2008-2009 crisis-response policies are coded as part of this movement even though they partially reversed the original supply-side doctrinal direction.