IESET.
Movements·guinea_bissau_embalo_stabilisation_cashew_state_2020_2025

Embalo stabilisation and cashew-rent state 2020-2025

GNB·2020 – 2025·Umaro Sissoco Embalo presidency and supporting parliamentary blocs
Leaders: Umaro Sissoco Embalo (President, 2020-2025) · Nuno Gomes Nabiam (Prime Minister, 2020-2023) · Geraldo Martins (Prime Minister, 2023)

Doctrine — stated goals and content

The Embalo era combined presidential consolidation, ECOWAS-backed security stabilization, IMF-supported public-finance reform, and annual cashew export management in an economy dominated by raw cashew sales. Its governing logic was to restore fiscal and security predictability while keeping tight executive control over a fragile political system.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

~
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
mixed · moderate
Security stabilization and IMF governance benchmarks formalized parts of state administration, while the 2023 dissolution concentrated executive authority.
↓
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · moderate
lower spending share
The ECF anchors revenue, expenditure, arrears, and debt controls in a fragile fiscal setting.
~
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
mixed · weak
Cashew campaign rules support export marketing but rely on administered prices and state gatekeeping.
↑
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · weak
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating
Annual cashew export rules condition the dominant export crop through campaign, licence, and reference-price decisions.

Policies enacted

References