Movements · guinea_cnrd_transition_resource_state_2021_present Guinea CNRD transition and resource-infrastructure state 2021-present GIN · 2021 – present· National Committee of Reconciliation and Development (CNRD)
Leaders: Mamadi Doumbouya (transition president, 2021-present) · Bah Oury (Prime Minister, 2024-present) · Moussa Cisse (Minister of Economy and Finance, transition period)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Guinea's CNRD transition framed military rule as a refoundation of state authority, constitutional order, and control over strategic mineral rents. The programme combines a transition charter and constitutional timetable with bauxite, iron-ore, local-content, and IMF-backed public-finance measures aimed at capturing more domestic value from mining while stabilizing the budget.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ~
rule of law → institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
mixed · moderate
The transition charter formalized interim institutions while replacing elected constitutional authority after the coup.
↑
sectoral subsidy → fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
Simandou infrastructure and local-content rules direct state coordination and reserved opportunities toward mining-linked sectors.
~
trade openness → regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
mixed · weak
Simandou seeks export corridor integration while local-content rules reserve parts of procurement and employment for domestic actors.
↓
spending level → fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · weak
lower spending share
The IMF staff-monitored programme emphasizes revenue mobilization, spending control, and arrears management.
Policies enacted · gin_cnrd_transition_charter_2021 · gin_local_content_law_2022 · gin_simandou_framework_agreement_2022 · gin_imf_staff_monitored_program_2024 References Conseil National de la Transition de Guinee, Charte de la Transition and adopted-law list. Government of Guinea and Simandou project partners, 2022 framework agreement and Compagnie du TransGuineen materials. IMF, Guinea 2024 Article IV Consultation and Staff-Monitored Program materials. IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.