Movements · latvia_karins_silina_security_state_2022_present Latvia Karins-Silina security and resilience state 2022-present LVA · 2022 – present· New Unity-led governments under Krisjanis Karins and Evika Silina
Leaders: Krisjanis Karins (Prime Minister, 2019-2023) · Evika Silina (Prime Minister, 2023-present)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Latvia's current policy cycle is organised around security resilience after the Ukraine shock, energy-price protection, and EU-aligned rights and safety commitments. The government reintroduced state defence service, used temporary fiscal support to cushion energy-price spikes while diversifying away from Russian energy dependence, and ratified the Istanbul Convention to strengthen domestic-violence prevention and victim protection.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ↑
spending level → fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Energy compensation, defence-service buildout, and Istanbul Convention implementation add public spending.
↓
labour market flexibility → regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
decreased · weak
less flexible (stronger employment protection)
State defence service constrains covered cohorts during service periods.
↑
energy supply security → regulatory.energy_supply_security
Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.
increased · weak
higher supply-security posture (diversified, strategic reserves)
Energy-shock measures were paired with diversification away from Russian supply exposure.
↑
rule of law → institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · moderate
stronger rule of law
Statutory defence-service rules and Istanbul Convention obligations strengthen predictable state obligations.
Policies enacted · lv_energy_price_support_law_2022 · lv_state_defence_service_2023 · lv_istanbul_convention_ratification_2024 References Latvian Ministry of Defence, National Defence Service: https://www.mod.gov.lv/en/national-defence-service Council of Europe Treaty Office materials on Latvia and the Istanbul Convention. IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.