IESET.
Movements·mexico_calderon_pan_2006_2012

Calderón PAN — drug war, macro orthodoxy, labour reform

MEX·2006 – 2012·PAN (Partido Acción Nacional)
Leaders: Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (President 2006-2012) · Agustín Carstens (Finance 2006-2009, Banxico Gov 2010-2017) · Ernesto Cordero (Finance 2009-2011)
positionschicago_monetarismordoliberalpost_keynesian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Calderón's sexenio fused PAN market-liberal macroeconomics with a frontal militarised security strategy. (a) Economic school: centre-right orthodox — independent Banxico inflation-targeting, fiscal responsibility framework (LFPRH inherited, strengthened with structural-deficit rule 2006), 2007 IETU flat-minimum corporate alt-tax, 2008 state-oil reform Pemex minor opening (no private upstream), transparency via IFAI strengthened, 2012 Ley Federal del Trabajo reform (outgoing lame-duck Nov 2012) liberalising hiring, part-time + trial contracts, outsourcing rules. (b) Left-right: centre-right; pro-business, NAFTA-continuity, tight fiscal. (c) Dated policies: drug war launched 11 Dec 2006 (Operativo Conjunto Michoacán), IETU 1 Oct 2007, GFC countercyclical stimulus 2009, swine-flu H1N1 response Apr 2009, IFAI transparency strengthening, labour reform Nov 2012, Pacto de Calderón-era macroprudential framework for banks. (d) Popularity: won Jul 2006 by 0.58% over AMLO (disputed); approval entered low 60s on drug-war launch, fell to ~50% by 2012 exit as homicide-toll rose (~60,000 dead 2006-2012); PAN lost 2012 presidential to Peña Nieto PRI in first round. (e) Coherence: high macro-fiscal discipline; security strategy's escalation dynamic proved incoherent with rule-of-law goal as violence metastasised into organised-crime fragmentation.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · moderate
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
Nov 2012 LFT reform: trial contracts, hourly pay, outsourcing framework.
↑
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
increased · weak
higher corporate tax burden
IETU alt-minimum corporate tax raised effective burden on low-paying firms.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
Militarised security strategy correlated with homicide escalation + human-rights abuse allegations.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · weak
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Banxico independence + inflation-targeting further institutionalised.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
militarised_drug_war_homicide_effect
not yet written
labour_flexibility_informality_effect

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
chicago_monetarism
partial
ordoliberal
opposed
post_keynesian

References

Notes

Drug-war launch is defining non-economic signature; labour + IETU define economic content.