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Movements·nigeria_tinubu_apc_2023_present

Tinubu APC Tinubuomics reform era

NGA·2023 – present·All Progressives Congress (APC). Presidential election 25 Feb 2023: Tinubu 36.61% plurality (8.79m votes) — contested; Atiku (PDP) 29.07%, Obi (LP) 25.40%. National Assembly: APC 179/360 House seats, 59/109 Senate seats (largest bloc, governing with allies).
Leaders: Bola Ahmed Tinubu (President, sworn in 29 May 2023) · Kashim Shettima (VP) · Wale Edun (Finance / Coordinating Minister of the Economy) · Olayemi Cardoso (CBN Governor from 22 Sep 2023) · Zacch Adedeji (FIRS Chair; Tax Reform Committee)
positionschicago_monetarisminstitutionalism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Tinubuomics is a reformist-market shock-therapy programme announced on Day 1 with the inaugural line "subsidy is gone" (29 May 2023) removing the PMS petrol subsidy, followed by the 14 June 2023 naira float / unification of multiple CBN windows into the willing-buyer-willing-seller I&E window. Centre-right in Nigerian terms: supply-side liberalisation, FX liberalisation, CBN orthodoxy restoration under Olayemi Cardoso (appointed Sep 2023, replacing Emefiele-era heterodoxy and Ways-and-Means overdraft financing), Nigerian Tax Reform Bills submitted 2024 (broadening VAT, rationalising 62 overlapping taxes, raising VAT sharing to states), and Dangote Refinery commencing operations January 2024 reshaping downstream oil. The stabilisation cost has been severe: headline inflation rose from ~22% at inauguration to peak 34.2% (June 2024), naira depreciated from ~N460/$ to N1600+/$, cost-of-living pressure triggered the August 2024 #EndBadGovernance protests (echoing #EndSARS October 2020 memory) and sporadic 2025 unrest. Coherence line: "Renewed Hope" — front-load the painful subsidy + FX reforms the previous four administrations deferred, accept the stagflationary transition, and rebuild on stabilised macro foundations. Popularity has eroded markedly from the thin 2023 plurality mandate.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · strong
reduced sectoral subsidies
PMS petrol subsidy removed 29 May 2023; electricity tariff Band A cost-reflective 2024.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · strong
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Cardoso CBN ended Ways-and-Means financing, restored orthodox MPC; policy rate raised to 27.5%.
↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · moderate
more open trade
Naira unification ended parallel-market rationing; 43-item FX ban list lifted Oct 2023.
↑
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
FX willing-buyer-willing-seller regime; BDC reform; bank recapitalisation 2024.
↑
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
increased · moderate
more progressive (higher top rates, wider spread, larger targeted credits)
Tax Reform Bills 2024 raise PIT exemption, progressive bands; VAT sharing reallocated to consumption states.
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · moderate
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Electricity Act 2023 decentralised power to states; Dangote refinery breaks NNPC downstream monopoly.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · weak
weaker rule of law
Crackdown on #EndBadGovernance protests Aug 2024; treason charges against minors.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
chicago_monetarism
Subsidy removal + FX unification + CBN orthodoxy is textbook stabilisation.
partial
institutionalism

References