IESET.
Movements·peru_castillo_peru_libre_2021_2022

Castillo — Perú Libre rural-left government (Peru)

PER·2021 – 2022·Perú Libre (Vladimir Cerrón's Marxist-Leninist rural-left party) — nominal legislative base of 37/130 seats — with fragmented support from Juntos por el Perú and conditional Acción Popular / Alianza para el Progreso votes. Castillo broke with Cerrón early; five successive cabinets reflected collapsing coalition coherence.
Leaders: Pedro Castillo (President 2021-2022) · Pedro Francke (Economy Minister 2021-2022, heterodox-keynesian) · Óscar Graham (Economy Minister 2022, caretaker) · Kurt Burneo (Economy Minister 2022) · Guido Bellido (Prime Minister 2021, Perú Libre hardliner) · Mirtha Vásquez / Aníbal Torres / Betssy Chávez (later Prime Ministers)
positionsmarxianpost_keynesianinstitutionalism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Rural-left Marxist-Leninist Perú Libre programme on paper (Ideario y Programa — nationalisation of strategic sectors, constituent assembly to replace the 1993 Fujimori Constitution, gas pricing for domestic use, mining windfall taxation) versus pragmatic moderation once in office. Castillo, a rural primary- school teacher and Sutep union leader elected narrowly over Keiko Fujimori in the June 2021 runoff, ran on "no more poor people in a rich country" redistribution and regional devolution. Once installed, Finance Minister Pedro Francke preserved BCRP independence, the open capital account, and the fiscal-rule framework; no nationalisations executed; no constituent-assembly bill passed Congress. The failed constitutional process — repeatedly rejected by a hostile right-dominated Congress — became the defining political impasse. Governing chaos: five prime ministers, ~80 minister rotations in 17 months, multiple corruption investigations (Bruno Pacheco, Karelim López, Juan Silva). On Dec 7 2022, hours before a third impeachment vote, Castillo delivered a televised message dissolving Congress, declaring a "government of exception," and ordering judicial reorganisation — an attempted self-coup that failed within hours as security forces refused to comply, the cabinet resigned en masse, and Congress impeached and detained him the same day. IESET codes the Castillo period as high-doctrinal-intent, low- execution: rhetorical left programme, minimal enacted market- content movement, acute institutional-process failure culminating in the autogolpe attempt.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

—
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
unchanged · weak
Rhetorical nationalisation intent not enacted; sectoral licensing regime unchanged in substance.
—
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
unchanged · weak
Proposed mining windfall taxes did not pass Congress; effective corporate tax burden unchanged.
↑
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
Sixth AFP withdrawal (May 2022) and targeted rural subsidies; modest cash-transfer expansion under FISE / Pensión 65.
—
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
unchanged · weak
BCRP autonomy preserved; Velarde reappointed. Policy intent was mixed but execution null.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
Corruption probes against inner circle; Dec 7 2022 attempted dissolution of Congress was an extra-constitutional act.
↓
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · moderate
weaker judicial independence
Attempted reorganisation of Fiscalía and judiciary in the Dec 7 message; executive pressure on prosecutors throughout.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
rural_left_programme_execution_gap_latin_america

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
marxian
Programme doctrine aligned; execution null.
partial
post_keynesian
Francke preserved orthodox macro; intent was heterodox.
opposed
institutionalism

References

Notes

Case study in the distance between stated doctrine (Perú Libre ideario) and enacted content under coalition and institutional constraints. Relevant to hypotheses about left-populist programme attenuation in office. Castillo post-impeachment faces ongoing criminal trial for rebellion.