Montenegro AD minority government under Chega leverage (Portugal 2024-present)

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centre-right AD coalition installed after the 10 March 2024 snap election triggered by Costa's resignation. Economic school: centre- right AD liberalism (PSD liberal-conservative + CDS Christian- democratic + PPM) — lower-tax, supply-side, pro-investment, EU- mainstream — constrained by a fragmented Assembleia in which the Chega populist right (1.1% in 2019 → 7.2% in 2022 → 18.1% in 2024) holds 50 seats and sets the agenda by refusing systematic abstention. Left-right axis: centre-right executive operating under structural populist-right leverage; outcomes depend on whether any given bill is passed with Chega support (migration, security) or PS abstention (budget, EU files). Core content so far: (a) IRS reform continuation — OE2024 (inherited) kept IRS Jovem and Montenegro's OE2025 widened it (tax-free first year for under- 35s, progressive relief through age 35) and trimmed middle-bracket rates; (b) corporate IRC cut trajectory — statutory rate reduced from 21% toward 17% over multi-year path (contested by PS/Chega); (c) civil-service and security-forces pay rises to defuse PSP/GNR 2024 dispute; (d) housing — partial rollback of Mais Habitação (Lei 56/2023) coercive measures (forced-lease article, rent-cap tightening) via Construir Portugal package; retention of AL licence freeze; VAT on construction of affordable housing cut to 6%; (e) golden-visa regime — retained post-2023 scope (excluding real-estate track) with emphasis on scientific / investment-fund channels; (f) migration tightening under Chega pressure — manifestações de interesse regularisation channel ended June 2024, CPLP mobility agreement narrowed, Agência para a Integração, Migrações e Asilo (AIMA) backlog reform; (g) SNS capacity package and private-sector triage pilots; (h) EU posture — continued NextGenerationEU PRR execution with 2026 deadline pressure and active defence-spending scaling toward 2% NATO target. Popularity: AD coalition 28.8% in March 2024 (versus PS 28.0% — a 0.8-point win); Chega 18.1% the story of the cycle. European Parliament June 2024: AD 31.1% (first), PS 32.1% (second — a reversal), Chega 9.8% (under-performed vs national vote). 2025 autárquicas (local elections): PS retained Lisboa and Porto; AD strong in north and interior; Chega built first municipal footholds. Approval volatile — Montenegro net-positive at installation, eroded through 2025 on cost-of-living and immigration salience. Coherence judgement: programmatically coherent centre-right agenda executed under unprecedented parliamentary leverage from the populist right, making the movement's coding as much about what Chega allows through as what AD proposes.