IESET.
Movements·portugal_passos_coelho_psd_cds_2011_2015

Passos Coelho PSD-CDS Troika-programme austerity (Portugal 2011-2015)

PRT·2011 – 2015·PSD-CDS-PP centre-right coalition (Assembleia da República majority: PSD 108 + CDS-PP 24 of 230 seats, June 2011 election)
Leaders: Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD, Prime Minister June 2011 - November 2015) · Vítor Gaspar (Finance Minister 2011-2013, architect of programme fiscal package) · Maria Luís Albuquerque (Finance Minister 2013-2015) · Paulo Portas (CDS-PP leader, Deputy PM)
positionsordoliberalempirical_pragmatistpost_keynesiandemocratic_socialist

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centre-right PSD-CDS coalition formed after José Sócrates's PS government requested an EU-ECB-IMF bailout (April 2011) and lost the June 2011 snap election. Economic school: Troika-programme austerity plus structural reform — EU ordoliberal fiscal-consolidation template combined with OECD-style product- and labour-market liberalisation. Left-right axis: centre-right (PSD liberal-conservative + CDS-PP Christian-democratic). Core content: (a) €78bn EU-ECB-IMF Memorandum of Understanding signed 17 May 2011 with conditionality across fiscal, labour, judicial, product-market, and banking dimensions; (b) deep fiscal consolidation — VAT hike to 23%, public-sector wage cuts of 5-10% (2011 Budget Law) later extended and partially struck down by Tribunal Constitucional (Acórdãos 353/2012, 187/2013, 413/2014); 13th/14th-month bonus suspensions; pension freezes and convergence of CGA/Social Security rules; (c) labour-market reform (Lei 23/2012) reducing severance, overtime premia, and collective-agreement extension; (d) privatisations of EDP, REN, ANA Aeroportos, CTT Correios, TAP (process started), Águas de Portugal partial; (e) judicial and product-market reforms under Troika chapters. Exited programme 17 May 2014 clean (no precautionary facility). Popularity: PSD-CDS won 2011 with 50.4% combined vote share; by 2015 legislative election PSD-CDS 'Portugal à Frente' list took 36.9% and 107 seats — a plurality but short of a majority, and the combined left (PS 32.3% + BE 10.2% + CDU 8.3%) formed the geringonça that ejected them. 2014 European elections: PSD 27.7%, CDS 7.7%. Approval collapsed during programme years (net -40 to -50 in Eurobarometer 2012-2013) and recovered only partially post-exit. Coherence judgement: doctrinally coherent Troika-programme execution that delivered programme exit and external-account correction but at the cost of deep social compression and eventual electoral defeat by a novel left coalition.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · strong
lower spending share
Public-wage cuts, pension freeze, bonus suspensions; primary balance moved from deficit to surplus by 2013-2014.
↓
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · moderate
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
IRS bracket compression 2013 (five brackets) raised effective rates across middle deciles; combined with VAT-hike weight on lower deciles.
↑
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · strong
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
Lei 23/2012: reduced severance (30→20→12 days/year), eased individual and collective dismissal, cut overtime premia, weakened sectoral-agreement extension (portarias de extensão).
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · moderate
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Professional-services liberalisation (Law 2/2013 regulated professions), commerce licensing simplification, judicial-process acceleration — OECD PMR Portugal score improved 2008→2013.
↓
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
decreased · moderate
looser licensing, more open entry
Privatisations of EDP (2011-2012), REN (2012), ANA (2012-2013), CTT (2013-2014), TAP begun — reduced state gating in energy, aviation, postal.
↑
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
BES resolution August 2014 (Banco Espírito Santo split into Novo Banco + bad bank), bank recapitalisation with CoCos; tighter supervision under BdP within ECB SSM framework from 2014.
—
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
unchanged · weak
Tribunal Constitucional struck down repeated austerity measures as violating equality principle but democratic institutions held; no institutional erosion.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
ordoliberal
EU-ECB fiscal-consolidation orthodoxy plus structural-reform agenda.
partial
empirical_pragmatist
Programme exit clean without second facility is cited in pragmatist literature as evidence conditional bailouts can work under favourable external conditions.
opposed
post_keynesian
Austerity depth and labour-reform content are the canonical post-Keynesian counter-case.
opposed
democratic_socialist

References

Notes

Coded as a single movement despite Paulo Portas's brief July 2013 resignation and the 'second Troika quarrel' (irredentist reshuffle crisis) because the programme execution line remained continuous. Existing policy portugal_troika_programme_2011_2014 pre-dates this movement file and has been updated to point at this movement_id.