IESET.
Movements·skorea_moon_dp_2017_2022

Moon Jae-in income-led growth government (South Korea)

KOR·20172022·Democratic Party of Korea (Deobureo Minjudang) — won April 2020 legislative supermajority (180/300 seats) with allied Platform Party
Leaders: Moon Jae-in (President 2017-2022) · Kim Dong-yeon (Finance Minister 2017-2018) · Hong Nam-ki (Finance Minister 2018-2022) · Jang Ha-sung (Policy Chief of Staff, architect of income-led growth)
positionspost_keynesiansocial_democraticchicago_monetarism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centre-left Democratic Party government elected after the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, organised around a self-described "income-led growth" (소득주도성장) doctrine that aimed to shift the Korean macro model from chaebol-led export primacy toward wage-led domestic demand. Core content: (i) rapid statutory minimum-wage escalation (16.4% increase January 2018 to KRW 7,530, followed by 10.9% January 2019 to KRW 8,350 — the two largest consecutive annual hikes in Korean history, before a deliberate pullback to ~2-3% in 2020-2022 after SME backlash); (ii) 52-hour maximum work-week phased from July 2018 for firms with 300+ employees, extended to smaller firms through 2021; (iii) public-sector hiring expansion targeting 810,000 additional public jobs over the term; (iv) property- market tightening across 20+ packages (comprehensive capital-gains tax, acquisition-tax surcharges on multi-home owners, loan-to-value caps for Seoul, and the July 2020 lease-law revision extending tenancy to four years and capping renewal rent increases at 5%) which coincided with a ~90% Seoul apartment-price surge 2017-2021; (v) inter-Korean engagement — three Moon-Kim summits 2018, Panmunjom Declaration, Pyongyang Declaration, which stalled after the 2019 Hanoi summit breakdown; (vi) nuclear phase-out posture (stopped Shin Kori 5/6 suspension referendum in 2017 ultimately resumed construction; legislated no new plants and life-extension rejections) paired with renewable expansion and the 2050 carbon-neutrality pledge; (vii) COVID-19 response — disaster relief cash transfers, Korean New Deal (KRW 160 trillion) announced 2020. Proponents frame the package as a correction of chaebol-skewed growth and social-safety-net catch-up; critics frame it as wage-cost shock to SMEs, property-price fuel, and nuclear policy incoherence.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
decreased · moderate
less flexible (stronger employment protection)
Minimum-wage escalation 29% cumulative 2018-2019; 52-hour cap restricts overtime; public-sector hiring formalisation.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Youth allowance, child allowance introduced 2018, basic pension expansion, COVID cash transfers.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
General government spending share rose from ~32% to ~37% of GDP; Korean New Deal programme.
tax capital
fiscal.tax_capital
Taxation of capital income (dividends, capital gains, inheritance, wealth). Distinct from corporate rate.
increased · moderate
higher capital income tax
Multi-home capital-gains surcharges, comprehensive real-estate tax (Jongbuse) expansion, acquisition-tax surcharges.
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · moderate
more stringent environmental rules
2050 carbon-neutrality pledge, renewable portfolio standard, emissions trading scheme tightening.
energy supply security
regulatory.energy_supply_security
Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.
decreased · moderate
lower supply-security posture (single-supplier dependence, early phase-outs)
Nuclear phase-out posture — cancelled new-build plans and shortened operating licences, partially reversed later.
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · weak
weaker judicial independence
2019-2021 prosecution-service reform (Gongsucheo / CIO) + confrontation with Prosecutor-General Yoon Suk-yeol; contested.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
skorea_income_led_growth_wage_employment_tradeoff
not yet written
skorea_property_price_response_to_demand_side_tightening

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
post_keynesian
Wage-led growth is a post-Keynesian / Kaleckian trope; empirical payoff was contested.

References

Notes

Approval trajectory: entered at ~84% post-impeachment of Park; sustained 60%+ through 2018 summit diplomacy; declined to ~40s by late 2020 on property-price anger and Cho Kuk scandal; ended ~42% at handover. April 2020 legislative supermajority (180/300) enabled the second half of the minimum-wage / property / prosecutor-reform agenda even as executive approval fell.