Mbeki ANC presidency (South Africa, 1999-2008)

Doctrine — stated goals and content

The Mbeki presidency consolidated the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) framework inherited from his own 1996 authorship as deputy president, executing orthodox macroeconomic management under Finance Minister Trevor Manuel: fiscal consolidation with deficit narrowing to surplus by 2006/07, inflation targeting formally adopted by SARB in February 2000, tariff liberalisation under WTO commitments, and exchange-control relaxation including the 2003 foreign-direct-investment allowance. Economic school: pragmatic Africanist-orthodox — GEAR macro + Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment codified by the BBBEE Act 53 of 2003 and sectoral Codes of Good Practice (finalised 2007) + ANC-dominant developmental-state rhetoric. The doctrine was pro-business in macro and pro-redistribution in structural racial redress. Social grants expanded dramatically (child support grant from 1998 reaching ~8M recipients by 2008; old-age and disability grants extended). Growth averaged ~4% 2004-2007, the best sustained run of the post-apartheid era. Shadows: the AIDS-denialism episode (questioning HIV causation, blocking ARV rollout until the 2003 Cabinet reversal) cost an estimated 330,000+ lives per Chigwedere et al. (Harvard, 2008); Zimbabwe "quiet diplomacy"; 2007 Eskom capacity-margin warnings ignored leading to January 2008 load-shedding. ANC popularity: 66.35% (1999) → 69.69% (2004) National Assembly seat share — the high-water mark. After the ANC Polokwane conference December 2007 elected Zuma party president, Mbeki was recalled by the ANC NEC on 20 September 2008 and resigned 25 September 2008. Coherence line: orthodox macro + targeted racial redress + ANC-dominant technocracy — internally coherent, globally well-regarded on fiscal policy, gravely undermined by the HIV/AIDS policy failure.