Erdoğan presidential-system era (Turkey 2018-2023)

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Full heterodox "Erdoğanomics" phase under the newly-inaugurated executive presidency. Economic school: explicit rejection of Taylor-rule monetary policy — the claim that high policy rates CAUSE inflation (reverse causality), operationalised by cutting CBRT rates from 19% (Sep 2021) to 8.5% (Feb 2023) while inflation accelerated from ~19% to a peak of 85.5% (Oct 2022). Governor Naci Ağbal was dismissed 20 Mar 2021 after a single rate hike; his replacement Şahap Kavcıoğlu delivered the cut cycle. Lira collapsed from ~4.5/USD (Aug 2018 crisis on Brunson tensions) to ~27/USD (May 2023) — cumulative depreciation above 80%. FX-protected deposit scheme (KKM, Kur Korumalı Mevduat) introduced 20 Dec 2021 transferred currency risk to the sovereign balance sheet. Left-right: economic-nationalist, increasingly-authoritarian, Islamic-conservative; alliance with MHP deepened securitised nationalism. Key events: executive presidency Jun 24 2018, Aug 2018 lira crisis (Brunson sanctions), Mar 2019 local elections (CHP took Istanbul + Ankara; Istanbul re-run Jun 2019 Imamoğlu won 54%), Covid shock 2020, KKM Dec 2021, 85% CPI Oct 2022, Kahramanmaraş earthquake 6 Feb 2023 (>50,000 dead), presidential election May 14 + runoff May 28 2023 (Erdoğan 52.18% vs Kılıçdaroğlu 47.82%), post-election Şimşek pivot Jun 2023. Popularity: Erdoğan 52.6% in 2018 first round, 52.18% 2023 runoff; AKP Meclis seats 295 (2018) and 267 (2023) of 600. Coherence: presidential-system consolidation plus unorthodox monetary experiment, ended (partially) only at the 2023 ballot box and subsequent orthodoxy pivot.