IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·africa_botswana_diamond_dependency_post_2014

Botswana's celebrated 1966-2010 institutional-exceptionalism case showed signs of diminishing returns post-2014 as natural-diamond demand softened (lab-grown competition, shifting consumer preferences, Indian polishing-industry restructuring) and economic diversification efforts produced limited results.

The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with mineral-exporting upper-middle-income peers (Namibia, Chile, Zambia, Ghana), Botswana's real-GDP-pc growth 2014-2024 falls at least 8 log- points below the synthetic counterfactual AND non-mining manufacturing share of GDP fails to rise by at least 2 percentage points (i.e. the diversification narrative does not register in the data). The null counter-claim is that Botswana's institutional premium continues to deliver outperformance and the apparent slowdown is within normal commodity-cycle variation.

PARTIALengine/runs/africa_botswana_diamond_dependency_post_2014

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2938, |gap|/pre_sd=6.9, p_perm=0.6; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+2938, |gap|/pre_sd=6.9, p_perm=0.6; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 2014 diamond demand indicator
  • Rough diamond price index
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Manufacturing share income
  • Mineral rents share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/africa_botswana_diamond_dependency_post_2014
1007550250200020122024BWANAMCHLZMBGHA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 5 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for africa_botswana_diamond_dependency_post_2014. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/africa_botswana_diamond_dependency_post_2014/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:29Z

Botswana's celebrated 1966-2010 institutional-exceptionalism case showed signs of diminishing returns post-2014 as natural-diamond demand softened (lab-grown competition, shifting consumer preferences, Indian polishing-industry restructuring) and economic diversification efforts produced limited results. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with mineral-exporting upper-middle-income peers (Namibia, Chile, Zambia, Ghana), Botswana's real-GDP-pc growth 2014-2024 falls at least 8 log- points below the synthetic counterfactual AND non-mining manufacturing share of GDP fails to rise by at least 2 percentage points (i.e. the diversification narrative does not register in the data). The null counter-claim is that Botswana's institutional premium continues to deliver outperformance and the apparent slowdown is within normal commodity-cycle variation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if EITHER (a) Botswana's cumulative log-GDP-pc growth gap 2014-2024 vs synthetic counterfactual is greater than -8 log-points (i.e. less than the threshold underperformance), OR (b) manufacturing share of GDP rises by more than 2 ppts 2014-2024 (i.e. diversification IS materialising), OR (c) the diamond-price intensity coefficient is not significantly positive on log_gdp_pc (i.e. the diamond-channel mechanism is not the proximate cause).

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_with_diversification_test
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc_gap_2014_2024 <= -0.08 AND manufacturing_share_2024 - manufacturing_share_2014 <= 2 ppts AND diamond_price_panel_coef on log_gdp_pc significant at p < 0.10

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did with BWA treated from 2014 and mineral-exporter peer donor pool. Secondary: panel FE with diamond-price index as treatment intensity. Robustness drops Chile (different mineral regime, diversified industrial base) and runs the test with Namibia-only counterfactual (closest geographic and structural peer).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
pwt:rgdpetier 3
log_level
manufacturing_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
mineral_rents_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MINR.RT.ZStier 2
level
services_export_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.SERV.CD.WTtier 2
level
post_2014_diamond_demand_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 for BWA from 2014 onwardtier 5
binary
rough_diamond_price_index
treatment
constructed:De Beers / Rapaport composite; supplemented by world_bank_wdi commodity pricestier 5
log_level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
copper_price
control
fred:PCOPPUSDMtier 1
world_bank_wdi:TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
wgi_govt_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — africa_botswana_diamond_dependency_post_2014

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+2938, |gap|/pre_sd=6.9, p_perm=0.6; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Botswana's celebrated 1966-2010 institutional-exceptionalism case showed signs of diminishing returns post-2014 as natural-diamond demand softened (lab-grown competition, shifting consumer preferences, Indian polishing-industry restructuring) and economic diversification efforts produced limited results. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with mineral-exporting upper-middle-income peers (Namibia, Chile, Zambia, Ghana), Botswana's real-GDP-pc growth 2014-2024 falls at least 8 log- points below the synthetic counterfactual AND non-mining manufacturing share of GDP fails to rise by at least 2 percentage points (i.e. the diversification narrative does not register in the data). The null counter-claim is that Botswana's institutional premium continues to deliver outperformance and the apparent slowdown is within normal commodity-cycle variation.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if EITHER (a) Botswana's cumulative log-GDP-pc growth gap 2014-2024 vs synthetic counterfactual is greater than -8 log-points (i.e. less than the threshold underperformance), OR (b) manufacturing share of GDP rises by more than 2 ppts 2014-2024 (i.e. diversification IS materialising), OR (c) the diamond-price intensity coefficient is not significantly positive on log_gdp_pc (i.e. the diamond-channel mechanism is not the proximate cause).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: BWA
  • event_year: 2010
  • n_donors: 4
  • donor_weights (top): {'GHA': 0.7277, 'NAM': 0.1552, 'CHL': 0.1171, 'ZMB': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 2941.21700208804
  • pre_period_sd: 425.418318551737
  • mean_post_gap: 2938.3530623225115
  • end_period_gap: 3026.6202502681735
  • post_period_years: [2010, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.6
  • n_placebos: 4
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD; pwt:rgdpe → real_gdp_pc (outcome, n=14131)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → wgi_govt_effectiveness (controls, n=5194)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:29+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Designed to be orthogonal to the existing botswana_institutional_exceptionalism hypothesis (which tests the long-run 1966-2010 success). This hypothesis tests whether the institutional-quality premium has weakened in the diamond-demand-softening era.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.