IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·africa_nigeria_naira_redesign_2023_cash_crisis

The CBN's October 2022 - February 2023 naira-redesign demonetisation programme (recall of 200/500/1000 notes, replacement with new design, partial deadline rollback by Supreme Court) caused a measurable but transitory contraction in cash-intensive informal-sector activity, a temporary spike in payment-system volume on NIBSS rails, and a documented shock to first-quarter 2023 retail and consumption indicators.

The pre-registered claim is that, in an event-study design around the November-2022 announcement and February- 2023 deadline, the contemporaneous month and the following two months show (a) NIBSS electronic-payment volume rises at least 50% above 2022 trend, (b) Nigerian PMI retail/services prints fall at least 5 index points below the prior 12-month average, and (c) the effect substantially dissipates by Q3 2023. The null counter-claim is that the naira-redesign was a small noise event whose macroeconomic footprint is indistinguishable from the parallel May-2023 fuel-subsidy shock.

PARTIALengine/runs/africa_nigeria_naira_redesign_2023_cash_crisis

PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=-0.441, z=-9.7; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether redesign announcement event is actually linked to better or worse currency in circulation share m2 from 2018 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=ITS, mean_gap=-0.441, z=-9.7; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2018 to 2024, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Redesign announcement event
What we checked
  • Currency in circulation share m2
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Real income quarterly
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/africa_nigeria_naira_redesign_2023_cash_crisis
1007550250201820212024NGA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show currency_in_circulation_share_m2 across 1 sampled countries over 2018–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for africa_nigeria_naira_redesign_2023_cash_crisis. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/africa_nigeria_naira_redesign_2023_cash_crisis/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:11:18Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The CBN's October 2022 - February 2023 naira-redesign demonetisation programme (recall of 200/500/1000 notes, replacement with new design, partial deadline rollback by Supreme Court) caused a measurable but transitory contraction in cash-intensive informal-sector activity, a temporary spike in payment-system volume on NIBSS rails, and a documented shock to first-quarter 2023 retail and consumption indicators. The pre-registered claim is that, in an event-study design around the November-2022 announcement and February- 2023 deadline, the contemporaneous month and the following two months show (a) NIBSS electronic-payment volume rises at least 50% above 2022 trend, (b) Nigerian PMI retail/services prints fall at least 5 index points below the prior 12-month average, and (c) the effect substantially dissipates by Q3 2023. The null counter-claim is that the naira-redesign was a small noise event whose macroeconomic footprint is indistinguishable from the parallel May-2023 fuel-subsidy shock.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if EITHER (a) currency-in-circulation does not fall by at least 30% from October 2022 to February 2023, OR (b) Q1 2023 real GDP print is not at least 1.5 ppts below the prior 4-quarter trend, OR (c) the impact does not dissipate by Q4 2023 (effect persists into 2024 — would suggest the demonetisation had a more persistent effect than the textbook one-quarter-shock framing predicts).

formal test & threshold
test:      event_study_dual_outcome_with_persistence_check
threshold: currency_in_circulation_2023_02 / currency_in_circulation_2022_09 <= 0.70 AND Q1_2023_real_gdp_yoy - prior_4q_trend <= -1.5 ppts AND Q4_2023 outcome within 1 SD of pre-event mean

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 2018 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Event study with t=0 at 2022-10 announcement and 2023-02 original deadline. ARIMA benchmark for pre-event trend on each outcome. Robustness uses DiD against Ghana monthly data as imperfect control; primary specification is single-country event study because no clean cross-country comparator exists for a demonetisation episode of this scale at this time.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
currency_in_circulation_share_m2
outcome
imf:FMA_USDtier 2
world_bank_wdi:FM.LBL.MQMY.CNtier 2
level
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
yoy
real_gdp_quarterly
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
log_level
m2_money_supply
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FM.LBL.BMNY.CNtier 2
imf:FMA_USDtier 2
log_level
redesign_announcement_event
treatment
constructed:dummy in months 2022-10 and 2023-01 to 2023-04tier 5
event_dummy
brent_oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
usd_exchange_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:PA.NUS.FCRFtier 2
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — africa_nigeria_naira_redesign_2023_cash_crisis

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=-0.441, z=-9.7; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The CBN's October 2022 - February 2023 naira-redesign demonetisation programme (recall of 200/500/1000 notes, replacement with new design, partial deadline rollback by Supreme Court) caused a measurable but transitory contraction in cash-intensive informal-sector activity, a temporary spike in payment-system volume on NIBSS rails, and a documented shock to first-quarter 2023 retail and consumption indicators. The pre-registered claim is that, in an event-study design around the November-2022 announcement and February- 2023 deadline, the contemporaneous month and the following two months show (a) NIBSS electronic-payment volume rises at least 50% above 2022 trend, (b) Nigerian PMI retail/services prints fall at least 5 index points below the prior 12-month average, and (c) the effect substantially dissipates by Q3 2023. The null counter-claim is that the naira-redesign was a small noise event whose macroeconomic footprint is indistinguishable from the parallel May-2023 fuel-subsidy shock.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if EITHER (a) currency-in-circulation does not fall by at least 30% from October 2022 to February 2023, OR (b) Q1 2023 real GDP print is not at least 1.5 ppts below the prior 4-quarter trend, OR (c) the impact does not dissipate by Q4 2023 (effect persists into 2024 — would suggest the demonetisation had a more persistent effect than the textbook one-quarter-shock framing predicts).
  • Falsification test: event_study_dual_outcome_with_persistence_check
  • Event year: 2022

Estimate

  • shape: single_country_its
  • country: NGA
  • event_year: 2022
  • n_pre: 4
  • n_post: 3
  • pre_trend_slope: 0.18822046489759567
  • pre_trend_intercept: -380.10449436290173
  • pre_residual_sd: 0.045665838546219785
  • end_year: 2024
  • end_year_actual: 0.2986527866164983
  • end_year_counterfactual: 0.853726589831922
  • end_year_gap: -0.5550738032154237
  • mean_post_gap: -0.4410456798343006
  • z_end: -12.155121221602371
  • z_mean: -9.658109735309138
  • post_period_years: [2022, 2024]

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; imf:PCPIPCH → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD; imf:NGDP_R → real_gdp_quarterly (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)

Variables missing data

  • imf:FMA_USD; world_bank_wdi:FM.LBL.MQMY.CN (outcome, name=currency_in_circulation_share_m2)
  • world_bank_wdi:FM.LBL.BMNY.CN; imf:FMA_USD (outcome, name=m2_money_supply)
  • constructed: dummy in months 2022-10 and 2023-01 to 2023-04 (treatment, name=redesign_announcement_event)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU (controls, name=brent_oil_price)
  • world_bank_wdi:PA.NUS.FCRF; imf:ENDA_XDC_USD_RATE (controls, name=usd_exchange_rate)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS (controls, name=us_policy_rate)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-04-30T10:11:18+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated on CBN monthly money-supply data and NBS quarterly GDP. The Supreme Court rollback (early March 2023) created an unusual treatment-reversal episode; the spec treats the announcement as the event of interest rather than the original deadline.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.