IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·africa_ssa_post_covid_recovery_divergence_2020_2024

Sub-Saharan African economies' post-2020 COVID recovery trajectories diverged systematically along three dimensions: oil/commodity exporters (Nigeria, Angola, Gabon) underperformed on inflation; fiscally-constrained economies in debt distress (Ghana, Zambia, Ethiopia, Kenya) underperformed on growth; and tourism-dependent or fiscally- cushioned economies (Mauritius, Botswana, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire) recovered faster.

The pre-registered claim is that, in a panel-FE specification with country and year fixed effects across 30+ SSA countries, pre-COVID public-debt-share-of-GDP and commodity-export-share-of-GDP jointly explain at least 35% of the cross-country variation in cumulative 2020-2024 real-GDP-pc growth. The null counter-claim is that SSA recovery patterns are dominated by country-specific shocks (conflicts, political transitions) and the structural pre-COVID variables explain less than 20% of the variation.

PARTIALengine/runs/africa_ssa_post_covid_recovery_divergence_2020_2024

PARTIAL — coef=+4.967e-05, p=0.207 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+4.967e-05, p=0.207 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 2015 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Pre covid debt share
  • Pre covid commodity export share
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Gross public debt share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/africa_ssa_post_covid_recovery_divergence_2020_2024
1007550250201520202024NGAAGOGABGHAZMBETHKEN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 30 sampled countries over 2015–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for africa_ssa_post_covid_recovery_divergence_2020_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/africa_ssa_post_covid_recovery_divergence_2020_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:39Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Sub-Saharan African economies' post-2020 COVID recovery trajectories diverged systematically along three dimensions: oil/commodity exporters (Nigeria, Angola, Gabon) underperformed on inflation; fiscally-constrained economies in debt distress (Ghana, Zambia, Ethiopia, Kenya) underperformed on growth; and tourism-dependent or fiscally- cushioned economies (Mauritius, Botswana, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire) recovered faster. The pre-registered claim is that, in a panel-FE specification with country and year fixed effects across 30+ SSA countries, pre-COVID public-debt-share-of-GDP and commodity-export-share-of-GDP jointly explain at least 35% of the cross-country variation in cumulative 2020-2024 real-GDP-pc growth. The null counter-claim is that SSA recovery patterns are dominated by country-specific shocks (conflicts, political transitions) and the structural pre-COVID variables explain less than 20% of the variation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (pre-COVID debt + commodity export share) interacted with the post- 2020 dummy explain less than 35% of the cross-country variation in cumulative real- GDP-pc growth 2020-2024 (i.e. delta-R-squared from adding the interactions is less than 0.35), OR if the coefficient on the debt × post-2020 interaction is not significantly negative on growth at p < 0.05.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_variance_decomposition_with_interaction
threshold: delta_R_squared_from_structural_interactions >= 0.35 AND coef(pre_covid_debt × post_2020) on log_gdp_pc < 0 at p < 0.05

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 2015 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE with country and year fixed effects, plus interaction of post-2020 dummy with pre-COVID structural variables (debt, commodity export share, tourism share). Variance-decomposition test reports the share of cross-country recovery variation explained by the structural variables. Robustness drops conflict-affected countries and re-estimates. R-squared and adjusted-R-squared with-and-without the treatment terms gives the variance-explained share.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
pwt:rgdpetier 3
log_level
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
yoy
gross_public_debt_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
pre_covid_debt_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
average_2018_2019
pre_covid_commodity_export_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UNtier 2
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UNtier 2
average_2018_2019
pre_covid_tourism_share_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZStier 2
average_2018_2019
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
vdem_political_stability
control
vdem:v2x_polyarchytier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — africa_ssa_post_covid_recovery_divergence_2020_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+4.967e-05, p=0.207 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Sub-Saharan African economies' post-2020 COVID recovery trajectories diverged systematically along three dimensions: oil/commodity exporters (Nigeria, Angola, Gabon) underperformed on inflation; fiscally-constrained economies in debt distress (Ghana, Zambia, Ethiopia, Kenya) underperformed on growth; and tourism-dependent or fiscally- cushioned economies (Mauritius, Botswana, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire) recovered faster. The pre-registered claim is that, in a panel-FE specification with country and year fixed effects across 30+ SSA countries, pre-COVID public-debt-share-of-GDP and commodity-export-share-of-GDP jointly explain at least 35% of the cross-country variation in cumulative 2020-2024 real-GDP-pc growth. The null counter-claim is that SSA recovery patterns are dominated by country-specific shocks (conflicts, political transitions) and the structural pre-COVID variables explain less than 20% of the variation.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (pre-COVID debt + commodity export share) interacted with the post- 2020 dummy explain less than 35% of the cross-country variation in cumulative real- GDP-pc growth 2020-2024 (i.e. delta-R-squared from adding the interactions is less than 0.35), OR if the coefficient on the debt × post-2020 interaction is not significantly negative on growth at p < 0.05.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_variance_decomposition_with_interaction

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +4.967e-05
  • Std error: 3.77e-05
  • p-value: 0.207
  • Observations: 33, countries: 8
  • Within R²: 0.464
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD; pwt:rgdpe → real_gdp_pc (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; imf:PCPIPCH → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • imf:GGXWDG_NGDP; world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS → gross_public_debt_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS → pre_covid_debt_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=1788)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN; world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN → pre_covid_commodity_export_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9642)
  • world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS → pre_covid_tourism_share_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4663)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, publisher=fred, n=1200)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → us_policy_rate (controls, publisher=fred, n=2190)

Variables missing data

  • vdem:v2x_polyarchy (controls, name=vdem_political_stability) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Designed as the broad SSA-region descriptive hypothesis to complement the country- specific specs. Data-gated on WDI and IMF Article IV through 2024 vintage.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.