IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·albania_growth_health_services_shift_1990_2023

Albania's 1990-2023 development trajectory combined sustained real income growth, large child-mortality reductions, rising life expectancy, and a services-employment shift.

The narrow test is whether Albania clears at least three of four independent outcome thresholds over the period, using WDI vintages already present in the pipeline.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/albania_growth_health_services_shift_1990_2023

SUPPORTED

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. SUPPORTED

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Under5 mortality
  • Life expectancy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/albania_growth_health_services_shift_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ALB
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for albania_growth_health_services_shift_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/albania_growth_health_services_shift_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-02T11:31:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Albania's 1990-2023 development trajectory combined sustained real income growth, large child-mortality reductions, rising life expectancy, and a services-employment shift. The narrow test is whether Albania clears at least three of four independent outcome thresholds over the period, using WDI vintages already present in the pipeline.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics meet their thresholds, REFUTED if at most 1 metric is met after all available data are evaluated, and otherwise INCONCLUSIVE.

formal test & threshold
test:      multi_metric_checklist_development_and_services_shift
threshold: MET >= 3 of 4; REFUTE when confirmed MET <= 1 with no pending path to support

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Canonical-case checklist over WDI income, health, and employment-composition series.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_mean
under5_mortality
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORTtier 2
peak_to_trough_decline
life_expectancy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
pct_change
services_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.SRV.EMPL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — albania_growth_health_services_shift_1990_2023

Verdict: supported

Reason: 4 of 4 metrics met threshold (support threshold 3)

Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 3 of 4 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 1 met (impossible to hit support).

Counts: 4 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 0 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL

Primary country: ALB

Metric-by-metric

| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes | |---|---|:---:|---:|---|---| | 1 | real_gdp_pc_growth_sustained | MET | 3.88 (2023) [average_annual_growth_rate_value] | average annual growth >= 3.5% | average annual growth 1990-2023 = 3.878; threshold >=3.5 | | 2 | under5_mortality_decline_large | MET | 77.1 (2017) [peak_to_trough_pct_decline] | >= 70% decline | | | 3 | life_expectancy_gain_large | MET | 9.48 (2023) [pct_increase_from_baseline] | >= 8% increase | | | 4 | services_employment_share_high | MET | 43.2 (2019) [max_in_window] | >= 40% during 2019 | |

Claim

Albania's 1990-2023 development trajectory combined sustained real income growth, large child-mortality reductions, rising life expectancy, and a services-employment shift. The narrow test is whether Albania clears at least three of four independent outcome thresholds over the period, using WDI vintages already present in the pipeline.

Interpretation

The canonical-case pattern match is satisfied: 4 of 4 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds, above the support threshold of 3. Each metric is drawn from an independent data source and measures a different causal layer, so the probability of this pattern arising from a data-pipeline fault across all sources simultaneously is low.

Steelman live concerns

See hypotheses/steelman/albania_growth_health_services_shift_1990_2023.md for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.

Provenance

Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.