IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·argentina_cepo_lift_2015_fx_inflation_reserves

Argentina's December 2015 cepo lift produced a discrete official-peso devaluation and higher short-run monthly inflation, while BCRA reserves did not collapse over the next 90 days.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/argentina_cepo_lift_2015_fx_inflation_reserves

SUPPORTED

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether cepo lift is actually linked to better or worse official fx retail from 2015 to 2016.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. SUPPORTED

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2015 to 2016, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Cepo lift
What we checked
  • Official fx retail
  • International reserves
  • Monthly cpi inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/argentina_cepo_lift_2015_fx_inflation_reserves
1007550250201520162016ARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show official_fx_retail across 1 sampled countries over 2015–2016.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for argentina_cepo_lift_2015_fx_inflation_reserves. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/argentina_cepo_lift_2015_fx_inflation_reserves/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Argentina's December 2015 cepo lift produced a discrete official-peso devaluation and higher short-run monthly inflation, while BCRA reserves did not collapse over the next 90 days.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 2 of 3 metrics pass: official FX devaluation exceeds 30 percent around the lift, reserves change is better than -20 percent over roughly 90 days, and average monthly CPI inflation rises by more than 1pp after the event. REFUTED if 1 or fewer pass.

formal test & threshold
test:      argentina_cepo_lift_2015_fx_inflation_reserves_window
threshold: SUPPORTED if >= 2 metrics pass; REFUTED if <= 1 pass.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2015 – 2016
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Compact national event-window replication from cached ONS/INE/BCRA vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
official_fx_retail
outcome
bcra:4tier 1
daily ARS/USD
international_reserves
outcome
bcra:1tier 1
daily USD millions
monthly_cpi_inflation
outcome
bcra:27tier 1
monthly percent
cepo_lift
treatment
constructed:2015-12 currency-control lifttier 5
event indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - argentina_cepo_lift_2015_fx_inflation_reserves

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 3/3 metrics passed (support >= 2; refute <= 1).

Claim

Argentina's December 2015 cepo lift produced a discrete official-peso devaluation and higher short-run monthly inflation, while BCRA reserves did not collapse over the next 90 days.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | Threshold | Pass | Details | |---|---:|---|:---:|---| | official_fx_devaluation | 38.345 | >30% devaluation | yes | 9.91 to 13.71 ARS/USD | | reserves_not_depleted | 20.344 | reserve change > -20% | yes | 24164 to 29080 USD mn | | inflation_pass_through | 1.083 | >1pp increase in average monthly CPI | yes | 2.33% to 3.42% average monthly |

Interpretation

This is a compact predeclared event-window verdict using local cached national-statistics vintages. It is strong for timing and magnitude, but not a full causal structural decomposition.

Provenance

See manifest.yaml for exact vintage files and SHA-256 hashes. Re-run with replication.py.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by scripts/generate_national_event_wave.py from local cached vintages; no network fetch required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.