IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·asia_sri_lanka_default_2022_imf_2023

Sri Lanka's April 2022 sovereign default — preceded by FX-reserve depletion, Rajapaksa-era tax cuts (2019), unfunded fertilizer-import ban (2021), and tourism collapse (2020-2021) — produced a measurable growth contraction with real GDP falling at least 7% in 2022, 33%+ CPI inflation peak in 2022, and the March 2023 IMF EFF arrangement produced a partial 2023 stabilisation visible in inflation deceleration to under 10% by year-end and FX-reserve recovery to at least 3 months of imports by end-2023.

PARTIALengine/runs/asia_sri_lanka_default_2022_imf_2023

PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, |Δ_log|=0.468; threshold 7.0%, observed 46.8%; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=pre_post, |Δ_log|=0.468; threshold 7.0%, observed 46.8%; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2015 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post default indicator
  • Imf eff 2023 indicator
What we checked
  • Real income growth
  • Cpi inflation
  • Real income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/asia_sri_lanka_default_2022_imf_2023
1007550250201520202024LKA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_growth across 1 sampled countries over 2015–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for asia_sri_lanka_default_2022_imf_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/asia_sri_lanka_default_2022_imf_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-12T10:32:31Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Sri Lanka's April 2022 sovereign default — preceded by FX-reserve depletion, Rajapaksa-era tax cuts (2019), unfunded fertilizer-import ban (2021), and tourism collapse (2020-2021) — produced a measurable growth contraction with real GDP falling at least 7% in 2022, 33%+ CPI inflation peak in 2022, and the March 2023 IMF EFF arrangement produced a partial 2023 stabilisation visible in inflation deceleration to under 10% by year-end and FX-reserve recovery to at least 3 months of imports by end-2023.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) Sri Lanka real GDP contraction 2022 is at least -7%; AND (2) CPI inflation 2023 end-of-year falls below 10% YoY (vs >70% peak 2022). REFUTED if EITHER fails (no major contraction OR no stabilisation).

formal test & threshold
test:      sri_lanka_2022_default_2023_imf_stabilisation
threshold: PRIMARY 1: gdp_growth(LKA, 2022) <= -0.07. PRIMARY 2: cpi_inflation(LKA, 2023-12) < 10. METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG and FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG for LKA through 2023; IMF inflation series for end-2023 quarterly.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2015 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Within-Sri-Lanka structural-break test on growth and inflation. Default-and-stabilisation pattern.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
cpi_inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
government_debt_pct_gdp
outcome
imf:general_government_gross_debt_pct_gdptier 2
level
post_default_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for year >= 2022tier 5
indicator
imf_eff_2023_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for year >= 2023tier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — asia_sri_lanka_default_2022_imf_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, |Δ_log|=0.468; threshold 7.0%, observed 46.8%; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Sri Lanka's April 2022 sovereign default — preceded by FX-reserve depletion, Rajapaksa-era tax cuts (2019), unfunded fertilizer-import ban (2021), and tourism collapse (2020-2021) — produced a measurable growth contraction with real GDP falling at least 7% in 2022, 33%+ CPI inflation peak in 2022, and the March 2023 IMF EFF arrangement produced a partial 2023 stabilisation visible in inflation deceleration to under 10% by year-end and FX-reserve recovery to at least 3 months of imports by end-2023.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) Sri Lanka real GDP contraction 2022 is at least -7%; AND (2) CPI inflation 2023 end-of-year falls below 10% YoY (vs >70% peak 2022). REFUTED if EITHER fails (no major contraction OR no stabilisation).
  • Falsification test: sri_lanka_2022_default_2023_imf_stabilisation

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: LKA
  • cut_year: 2022
  • pre_mean: 2.484689065906022
  • post_mean: -1.5567739644430867
  • delta: -4.041463030349108
  • log_delta: -0.4675318187909471
  • n_pre: 7
  • n_post: 3

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 7.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • imf:general_government_gross_debt_pct_gdp → government_debt_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for year >= 2022 → post_default_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=10)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for year >= 2023 → imf_eff_2023_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=10)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-12T10:32:31+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests both the crisis (2022) and post-IMF stabilisation (2023) phases. Sharp idiosyncratic shock; Sri Lanka time series with pre-shock baseline.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.