IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·asia_pakistan_imf_programme_cycle_1988_2024

Pakistan's recurring IMF-programme cycle 1988-2024 — at least 23 IMF arrangements over 36 years, including major SBA/EFF/RCF programmes 1988, 1993, 1995, 2008, 2013, 2019, 2023 — reflects a pattern of stabilisation-without-reform: short-run BoP support followed by fiscal slippage and renewed crisis.

Pakistan's per-capita GDP-PPP growth differential vs SAARC peer mean (BGD, IND, NPL, LKA) averages at most +0.0pp/yr over 1990-2019 (Pakistan at or below peers despite repeated IMF support); and inflation volatility exceeds peer mean by a large margin.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/asia_pakistan_imf_programme_cycle_1988_2024

SUPPORTED — coef=-2.287 (sign matches claim -), p=1.24e-14

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-2.287 (sign matches claim -), p=1.24e-14

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1990 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Pakistan indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Cpi inflation
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/asia_pakistan_imf_programme_cycle_1988_2024
1007550250199020052019PAKBGDINDNPLLKA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 5 sampled countries over 1990–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for asia_pakistan_imf_programme_cycle_1988_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/asia_pakistan_imf_programme_cycle_1988_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:39Z

Pakistan's recurring IMF-programme cycle 1988-2024 — at least 23 IMF arrangements over 36 years, including major SBA/EFF/RCF programmes 1988, 1993, 1995, 2008, 2013, 2019, 2023 — reflects a pattern of stabilisation-without-reform: short-run BoP support followed by fiscal slippage and renewed crisis. Pakistan's per-capita GDP-PPP growth differential vs SAARC peer mean (BGD, IND, NPL, LKA) averages at most +0.0pp/yr over 1990-2019 (Pakistan at or below peers despite repeated IMF support); and inflation volatility exceeds peer mean by a large margin.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if PAK real GDP-pc-PPP growth minus SAARC peer mean (BGD, IND, NPL, LKA) over 1990-2019 averages at most +0.0pp/yr (PAK at or below peers). REFUTED if PAK differential exceeds +1.0pp/yr (PAK clearly outperforming peers despite IMF cycle). INFORMATIVE (not gating): inflation volatility (CV of CPI inflation) higher in PAK than SAARC peers.

formal test & threshold
test:      pakistan_imf_cycle_no_growth_premium_vs_saarc_peers
threshold: PRIMARY: gdp_pc_growth(PAK, 1990-2019 mean) - gdp_pc_growth(SAARC_peers, 1990-2019 mean) <= 0. REFUTING: same diff > 0.01. METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG for PAK and SAARC peers across 1990-2019.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 1990 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Reduced-FE peer-difference design. Estimate the Pakistan indicator against SAARC peers with year fixed effects only, matching the preregistered PAK-minus-peer mean growth differential over 1990-2019. Country fixed effects are omitted because they absorb the Pakistan contrast by construction.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
cpi_inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
government_debt_pct_gdp
outcome
imf:general_government_gross_debt_pct_gdptier 2
level
pakistan_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for PAKtier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — asia_pakistan_imf_programme_cycle_1988_2024

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-2.287 (sign matches claim -), p=1.24e-14

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Pakistan's recurring IMF-programme cycle 1988-2024 — at least 23 IMF arrangements over 36 years, including major SBA/EFF/RCF programmes 1988, 1993, 1995, 2008, 2013, 2019, 2023 — reflects a pattern of stabilisation-without-reform: short-run BoP support followed by fiscal slippage and renewed crisis. Pakistan's per-capita GDP-PPP growth differential vs SAARC peer mean (BGD, IND, NPL, LKA) averages at most +0.0pp/yr over 1990-2019 (Pakistan at or below peers despite repeated IMF support); and inflation volatility exceeds peer mean by a large margin.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if PAK real GDP-pc-PPP growth minus SAARC peer mean (BGD, IND, NPL, LKA) over 1990-2019 averages at most +0.0pp/yr (PAK at or below peers). REFUTED if PAK differential exceeds +1.0pp/yr (PAK clearly outperforming peers despite IMF cycle). INFORMATIVE (not gating): inflation volatility (CV of CPI inflation) higher in PAK than SAARC peers.
  • Falsification test: pakistan_imf_cycle_no_growth_premium_vs_saarc_peers

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -2.287
  • Std error: 0.2597
  • p-value: 1.24e-14
  • Observations: 150, countries: 5
  • Within R²: 0
  • Fixed effects: entity=False, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • imf:general_government_gross_debt_pct_gdp → government_debt_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for PAK → pakistan_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=150)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests the political-economy claim that frequent IMF programmes without follow-through reform produce a chronic-stabilisation pattern rather than convergence. SAARC peer pool is benchmarking; Pakistan-specific cycle is the unit of analysis.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.