IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·asia_bangladesh_apparel_growth_1985_2024

Bangladesh's apparel-export-led growth model 1985-2024 — anchored by the 1985 establishment of the EPZ regime, the MFA-quota dynamics pre-2005, the EU Everything But Arms preferences from 2008, and a sustained labour-cost advantage — produced cumulative real GDP-pc-PPP growth that converges toward the SAARC peer mean (IND, PAK, NPL) and a manufacturing value-added share rise of at least +5 percentage points 1985 to 2019.

Real GDP-pc-PPP growth differential BGD vs PAK averages at least +1.0pp/yr over 2000-2019.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/asia_bangladesh_apparel_growth_1985_2024

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.7082 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0127

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.7082 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0127

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1975 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 1985 epz indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/asia_bangladesh_apparel_growth_1985_2024
1007550250197520002024BGDPAKINDNPLLKA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 5 sampled countries over 1975–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for asia_bangladesh_apparel_growth_1985_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/asia_bangladesh_apparel_growth_1985_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:39Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Bangladesh's apparel-export-led growth model 1985-2024 — anchored by the 1985 establishment of the EPZ regime, the MFA-quota dynamics pre-2005, the EU Everything But Arms preferences from 2008, and a sustained labour-cost advantage — produced cumulative real GDP-pc-PPP growth that converges toward the SAARC peer mean (IND, PAK, NPL) and a manufacturing value-added share rise of at least +5 percentage points 1985 to 2019. Real GDP-pc-PPP growth differential BGD vs PAK averages at least +1.0pp/yr over 2000-2019.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) BGD manufacturing value-added share rises by at least +5pp from 1985 to 2019; AND (2) BGD real GDP-pc-PPP growth minus PAK 2000-2019 mean is at least +0.01 (BGD at least 1pp/yr above PAK). REFUTED if EITHER fails.

formal test & threshold
test:      bangladesh_apparel_manufacturing_share_pakistan_growth_diff
threshold: PRIMARY 1: manuf_va_pct_gdp(BGD, 2019) - manuf_va_pct_gdp(BGD, 1985) >= 5. PRIMARY 2: gdp_pc_growth(BGD, 2000-2019 mean) - gdp_pc_growth(PAK, 2000-2019 mean) >= 0.01. METHOD_VALID: WDI NV.IND.MANF.ZS for BGD across 1985-2019; NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG for BGD and PAK 2000-2019.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 1975 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed effects with SAARC peer pool. Bangladesh-Pakistan bilateral comparison is the cleanest sub-test (similar 1971 starting point). The generic panel specification includes a 1975-1984 pre-period so the post-1985 EPZ/apparel treatment is identified under country fixed effects.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
post_1985_epz_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for BGD, year >= 1985tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — asia_bangladesh_apparel_growth_1985_2024

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.7082 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0127

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Bangladesh's apparel-export-led growth model 1985-2024 — anchored by the 1985 establishment of the EPZ regime, the MFA-quota dynamics pre-2005, the EU Everything But Arms preferences from 2008, and a sustained labour-cost advantage — produced cumulative real GDP-pc-PPP growth that converges toward the SAARC peer mean (IND, PAK, NPL) and a manufacturing value-added share rise of at least +5 percentage points 1985 to 2019. Real GDP-pc-PPP growth differential BGD vs PAK averages at least +1.0pp/yr over 2000-2019.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) BGD manufacturing value-added share rises by at least +5pp from 1985 to 2019; AND (2) BGD real GDP-pc-PPP growth minus PAK 2000-2019 mean is at least +0.01 (BGD at least 1pp/yr above PAK). REFUTED if EITHER fails.
  • Falsification test: bangladesh_apparel_manufacturing_share_pakistan_growth_diff

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.7082
  • Std error: 0.2806
  • p-value: 0.0127
  • Observations: 200, countries: 4
  • Within R²: -0.234
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for BGD, year >= 1985 → post_1985_epz_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=250)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Bangladesh-Pakistan parallel test is the cleanest natural-experiment framing — partition in 1971, similar 1971-1985 baselines, divergent apparel-led trajectories. Augmented with manufacturing-share test to capture the structural shift.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.