IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_bangladesh_apparel_eu_eba_2008

Bangladesh's preferential duty-free, quota-free access to EU markets under the Everything-But-Arms (EBA) scheme — strengthened by Multi-Fibre Arrangement phase-out completion in 2005 and EBA-rules-of-origin simplification effective 2011 — produced a structural acceleration in Bangladesh apparel exports and manufacturing-share-of-GDP over the 2005-2019 window.

The test is a within-country structural break plus comparator descriptive test against Pakistan, which had similar pre-2005 apparel-export potential but did not enjoy equivalent EU preferential access.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_bangladesh_apparel_eu_eba_2008

SUPPORTED - BGD manufacturing share rose +5.62pp and beat PAK by +3.42pp

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. BGD manufacturing share rose +5.62pp and beat PAK by +3.42pp

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1995 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Merchandise exports pct income
  • Log manufacturing value added
  • Manufacturing share of income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_bangladesh_apparel_eu_eba_2008
1007550250199520072019BGDPAKLKAKHMVNM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show merchandise_exports_pct_gdp across 5 sampled countries over 1995–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_bangladesh_apparel_eu_eba_2008. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_bangladesh_apparel_eu_eba_2008/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-18T19:35:40Z

Bangladesh's preferential duty-free, quota-free access to EU markets under the Everything-But-Arms (EBA) scheme — strengthened by Multi-Fibre Arrangement phase-out completion in 2005 and EBA-rules-of-origin simplification effective 2011 — produced a structural acceleration in Bangladesh apparel exports and manufacturing-share-of-GDP over the 2005-2019 window. The test is a within-country structural break plus comparator descriptive test against Pakistan, which had similar pre-2005 apparel-export potential but did not enjoy equivalent EU preferential access.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if BGD manufacturing-share-of-GDP rose by >=4 pp from 2000-2004 mean to 2015-2019 mean AND PAK comparator did not show a similar magnitude increase. PARTIAL if BGD increase is smaller. REFUTED if PAK matched or exceeded BGD.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_bgd_vs_pak_apparel_export_share
threshold: PRIMARY: BGD manufacturing-share change >= +4 pp AND BGD-minus-PAK change >= +2 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
5 countries · 1995 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison BGD vs PAK over 1995-2019. Reports manufacturing-share-of-GDP and merchandise-exports-share trajectories. No DiD because EBA access is a single-country treatment with limited donor pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_manufacturing_value_added
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.KDtier 2
log
manufacturing_share_of_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - trade_lib_bangladesh_apparel_eu_eba_2008

Verdict: SUPPORTED - BGD manufacturing share rose +5.62pp and beat PAK by +3.42pp

Exact Gate

  • SUPPORTED if Bangladesh manufacturing-share-of-GDP rises by at least +4pp from 2000-2004 to 2015-2019 and beats Pakistan by at least +2pp.
  • REFUTED if Pakistan matches or exceeds Bangladesh's manufacturing-share change.

Manufacturing Share

  • BGD delta: +5.621 pp.
  • PAK delta: +2.204 pp.
  • BGD minus PAK: +3.417 pp.

Export-Share Context

  • BGD exports/GDP delta: +1.826 pp.
  • PAK exports/GDP delta: -2.040 pp.
  • BGD minus PAK: +3.866 pp.

Vintages

  • Manufacturing share: data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NV.IND.MANF.ZS@2026-05-05T194954Z.parquet.
  • Exports/GDP context: data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS@2026-05-05T203013Z.parquet.
  • Real manufacturing VA context: data/vintages/world_bank_wdi/NV.IND.MANF.KD@2026-04-30T140100Z.parquet.

Generated by run-local exact replication at 2026-05-18T19:35:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.