IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·asia_taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_1985_2024

Taiwan's semiconductor industrial policy — anchored by ITRI's 1980s technology incubation, the 1987 spin-off of TSMC under government ownership, the Hsinchu Science Park ecosystem, and sustained R&D-intensity targeting through 2024 — produced one of the largest industrial-policy successes in modern economic history.

Taiwan's manufacturing value-added share of GDP remains above 30% through 2023 (vs OECD typical 12-18%); R&D / GDP exceeds 3.5% by 2022 (top-5 globally); high-tech exports / total manufacturing exports exceed 60% by 2022 (top-tier globally); and TFP index growth 1985-2019 exceeds OECD median by at least +0.5pp/yr.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/asia_taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_1985_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1985 to 2024, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
  • Rd pct income
  • High tech exports pct
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

5 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/asia_taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_1985_2024
1007550250198520052024TWN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp across 1 sampled countries over 1985–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for asia_taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_1985_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/asia_taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_1985_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

7 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:55Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Taiwan's semiconductor industrial policy — anchored by ITRI's 1980s technology incubation, the 1987 spin-off of TSMC under government ownership, the Hsinchu Science Park ecosystem, and sustained R&D-intensity targeting through 2024 — produced one of the largest industrial-policy successes in modern economic history. Taiwan's manufacturing value-added share of GDP remains above 30% through 2023 (vs OECD typical 12-18%); R&D / GDP exceeds 3.5% by 2022 (top-5 globally); high-tech exports / total manufacturing exports exceed 60% by 2022 (top-tier globally); and TFP index growth 1985-2019 exceeds OECD median by at least +0.5pp/yr.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Multi-metric checklist. SUPPORTED if >=4 of 6 metrics meet thresholds; REFUTED if <=2 do.

formal test & threshold
test:      taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_canonical_six_metric
threshold: >=4/6 supports; <=2/6 refutes

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1985 – 2024
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Six pre-registered metrics across measurement families.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
rd_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZStier 2
level
high_tech_exports_pct
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_constant_usd
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — asia_taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_1985_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Taiwan's semiconductor industrial policy — anchored by ITRI's 1980s technology incubation, the 1987 spin-off of TSMC under government ownership, the Hsinchu Science Park ecosystem, and sustained R&D-intensity targeting through 2024 — produced one of the largest industrial-policy successes in modern economic history. Taiwan's manufacturing value-added share of GDP remains above 30% through 2023 (vs OECD typical 12-18%); R&D / GDP exceeds 3.5% by 2022 (top-5 globally); high-tech exports / total manufacturing exports exceed 60% by 2022 (top-tier globally); and TFP index growth 1985-2019 exceeds OECD median by at least +0.5pp/yr.
  • Falsification rule: Multi-metric checklist. SUPPORTED if >=4 of 6 metrics meet thresholds; REFUTED if <=2 do.
  • Falsification test: taiwan_tsmc_industrial_policy_canonical_six_metric

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS → rd_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3140)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_exports_pct (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant_usd (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:55+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Multi-metric pattern-match for canonical industrial-policy success. Six pre-registered metrics across distinct measurement channels. Taiwan-specific not-replicable case; pattern-match is the appropriate estimator family.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.