IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·china_extra_made_in_china_2025_outcomes

China's "Made in China 2025" industrial-policy programme (announced May 2015, targeting 10 priority sectors with subsidies, state-directed investment, and indigenous-innovation procurement) produced measurable capability gains in manufacturing value-added share, high-tech export share, and R&D intensity from 2015 to 2024 — but did not break the global manufacturing-value-added share growth trend already in place pre-2015.

The differential vs an EM peer panel (BRA, MEX, IDN, IND, TUR, ZAF) on R&D intensity (gross domestic R&D / GDP) is at least +0.8 percentage points by 2022, while manufacturing value-added share growth is NOT differentially faster post-2015 than pre-2015.

PARTIALengine/runs/china_extra_made_in_china_2025_outcomes

PARTIAL — coef=+0.2101, p=0.182 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.2101, p=0.182 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2005 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post mic2025 indicator
What we checked
  • Rd pct income
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
  • High tech exports pct
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/china_extra_made_in_china_2025_outcomes
1007550250200520152024CHNBRAMEXIDNINDTURZAF
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show rd_pct_gdp across 7 sampled countries over 2005–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for china_extra_made_in_china_2025_outcomes. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/china_extra_made_in_china_2025_outcomes/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:44Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

China's "Made in China 2025" industrial-policy programme (announced May 2015, targeting 10 priority sectors with subsidies, state-directed investment, and indigenous-innovation procurement) produced measurable capability gains in manufacturing value-added share, high-tech export share, and R&D intensity from 2015 to 2024 — but did not break the global manufacturing-value-added share growth trend already in place pre-2015. The differential vs an EM peer panel (BRA, MEX, IDN, IND, TUR, ZAF) on R&D intensity (gross domestic R&D / GDP) is at least +0.8 percentage points by 2022, while manufacturing value-added share growth is NOT differentially faster post-2015 than pre-2015.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH must hold for SUPPORTED): (1) R&D / GDP differential CHN vs EM peer panel mean (BRA, MEX, IDN, IND, TUR, ZAF) increases by at least +0.8pp from 2014 to 2022. (2) Manufacturing value-added share of GDP for CHN does NOT show a positive trend break post-2015 vs pre-2015 (the test is for capability without share gain). REFUTED if R&D differential FAILS to grow OR if manufacturing share DOES show a positive trend break (which would make the policy a full success and refute the partial-vindication framing).

formal test & threshold
test:      china_mic2025_capability_input_without_share_break
threshold: PRIMARY 1: rd_pct_gdp(CHN, 2022) - rd_pct_gdp(CHN, 2014) - [rd_pct_gdp(peers, 2022) - rd_pct_gdp(peers, 2014)] >= 0.8. PRIMARY 2: trend_break_test(manuf_va_pct_gdp, CHN, 2015) NOT positive significant. METHOD_VALID: WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS and NV.IND.MANF.ZS available for CHN and peer panel through 2022.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2005 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed effects panel. Test 1: differences-in-differences on R&D share, CHN as treated post-2015 vs EM peer panel. Test 2: country-level structural-break test on manufacturing-share trend, CHN only.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
rd_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZStier 2
level
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
high_tech_exports_pct
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
post_mic2025_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for CHN, year >= 2015tier 5
indicator
log_gdp_pc_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — china_extra_made_in_china_2025_outcomes

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.2101, p=0.182 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: China's "Made in China 2025" industrial-policy programme (announced May 2015, targeting 10 priority sectors with subsidies, state-directed investment, and indigenous-innovation procurement) produced measurable capability gains in manufacturing value-added share, high-tech export share, and R&D intensity from 2015 to 2024 — but did not break the global manufacturing-value-added share growth trend already in place pre-2015. The differential vs an EM peer panel (BRA, MEX, IDN, IND, TUR, ZAF) on R&D intensity (gross domestic R&D / GDP) is at least +0.8 percentage points by 2022, while manufacturing value-added share growth is NOT differentially faster post-2015 than pre-2015.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH must hold for SUPPORTED): (1) R&D / GDP differential CHN vs EM peer panel mean (BRA, MEX, IDN, IND, TUR, ZAF) increases by at least +0.8pp from 2014 to 2022. (2) Manufacturing value-added share of GDP for CHN does NOT show a positive trend break post-2015 vs pre-2015 (the test is for capability without share gain). REFUTED if R&D differential FAILS to grow OR if manufacturing share DOES show a positive trend break (which would make the policy a full success and refute the partial-vindication framing).
  • Falsification test: china_mic2025_capability_input_without_share_break

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.2101
  • Std error: 0.1562
  • p-value: 0.182
  • Observations: 118, countries: 7
  • Within R²: 0.723
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS → rd_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3140)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_exports_pct (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for CHN, year >= 2015 → post_mic2025_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=140)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:44+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests both "capability gain" and "trend break" channels. The R&D test measures input-side commitment; manufacturing share tests whether the industrial-policy push produced an output-side share gain beyond pre-existing trend. Mixed prediction: capability YES, trend break NO.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.