IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·china_wto_accession_productivity_growth_effect

China's post-WTO 2001 accession produced export-sector productivity gains that spilled over to domestic value chains, vindicating export-oriented industrial policy combined with selective liberalisation.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/china_wto_accession_productivity_growth_effect

SUPPORTED — CHN PWT-rtfpna mean log-growth rose from +0.25%/yr (1990-2000) to +1.01%/yr (2002-2019), acceleration +0.76pp/yr (threshold +0.50pp/yr). Exports/GDP rose from 7.2% (1990-2000) to 16.0% (2002-2007), jump +8.7pp (threshold +8pp). Peer-net TFP acceleration -0.18pp/yr (informative threshold +0.30pp/yr) — does NOT hold.

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. CHN PWT-rtfpna mean log-growth rose from +0.25%/yr (1990-2000) to +1.01%/yr (2002-2019), acceleration +0.76pp/yr (threshold +0.50pp/yr).

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2019, using a event study design, with fixed effects for industry and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post wto accession indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Productivity index
  • Manufacturing value added pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/china_wto_accession_productivity_growth_effect
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Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

China's post-WTO 2001 accession produced export-sector productivity gains that spilled over to domestic value chains, vindicating export-oriented industrial policy combined with selective liberalisation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH must hold for SUPPORTED): (1) CHN PWT-rtfpna mean log-growth in the post-WTO window 2002-2019 must exceed the pre-WTO window 1990-2000 by at least +0.50pp/yr. (2) CHN merchandise-export share of GDP at current PPPs (PWT csh_x, converted to percent) must rise by at least +8 percentage points from the 1990-2000 mean to the pre-GFC ramp 2002-2007 mean. Both held = SUPPORTED. Exactly one held (with the other directionally correct but missing magnitude) = partial. Both missed AND at least one with the wrong sign = refuted. INFORMATIVE (does NOT gate the verdict): CHN TFP-growth acceleration net of an EM-peer panel mean (IND, BRA, MEX, IDN, MYS, THA, TUR, ZAF) >= +0.30pp/yr — flags the global-2000s-TFP-cycle alternative explanation when this fails. METHOD_VALID: pwt:rtfpna and pwt:csh_x must be available with non-empty pre and post windows for CHN. Original spec called for industry-level CIP data (industry+year FE, industry-clustered SEs); CIP industry panel is not on disk in this build, so the country-level structural-break proxy substitutes — see methodology_note.

formal test & threshold
test:      chn_post_2001_tfp_break_with_export_share_break_and_em_peer_difference
threshold: PRIMARY 1: mean(rtfpna_log_growth, 2002-2019) - mean(rtfpna_log_growth, 1990-2000) >= 0.005. PRIMARY 2: mean(csh_x*100, 2002-2007) - mean(csh_x*100, 1990-2000) >= 8.0. INFORMATIVE: PRIMARY 1 numerator minus the same difference computed on the 8-country EM peer panel mean >= 0.003.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
industry, year
Clustering
industry
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Event study around the 2001 WTO-accession date using Chinese industry- level productivity data. Tests for differential post-accession TFP growth in industries with higher pre-2001 export-orientation potential or higher tariff-cut exposure (treatment intensity).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
manufacturing_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
post_wto_accession_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for years >= 2002 (post-WTO entry)tier 5
indicator
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — China's WTO accession (2001) productivity-growth effect

Verdict: SUPPORTED — CHN PWT-rtfpna mean log-growth rose from +0.25%/yr (1990-2000) to +1.01%/yr (2002-2019), acceleration +0.76pp/yr (threshold +0.50pp/yr). Exports/GDP rose from 7.2% (1990-2000) to 16.0% (2002-2007), jump +8.7pp (threshold +8pp). Peer-net TFP acceleration -0.18pp/yr (informative threshold +0.30pp/yr) — does NOT hold.

Headline numbers

  • Sample: CHN; peer panel IND, BRA, MEX, IDN, MYS, THA, TUR, ZAF (8 with PWT TFP data).
  • Pre-window: 1990-2000; post-window (TFP): 2002-2019; post-window (trade ramp, pre-GFC): 2002-2007.

PRIMARY 1 — TFP-growth break (PWT rtfpna)

  • Pre mean log-growth: +0.248%/yr.
  • Post mean log-growth: +1.010%/yr.
  • Acceleration: +0.761pp/yr (threshold +0.50pp/yr).
  • Pass: yes.

PRIMARY 2 — Export-GDP-share break (WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS)

  • Pre mean: 7.24% of GDP.
  • Post (pre-GFC ramp 2002-2007) mean: 15.97% of GDP.
  • Jump: +8.73pp (threshold +8pp).
  • Pass: yes.
  • (Full post-window 2002-2019 mean: 18.13% — note the post-GFC retrenchment.)

INFORMATIVE — peer-difference TFP acceleration

  • Peer-mean acceleration: +0.942pp/yr (across 8 of 8 EM peers with PWT data).
  • China minus peer mean: -0.181pp/yr (informative threshold +0.30pp/yr).
  • Pass: no (informative-only; does not gate the verdict).

Method

Country-level structural-break test on PWT 10.01 rtfpna (TFP at constant national prices) and WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS (exports as % of GDP), with WTO accession dated to Dec 2001 (event year 2001). Pre window 1990-2000; post window 2002-2019 for TFP; post window restricted to the pre-GFC ramp 2002-2007 for the export share, where the trade-creation effect is at its peak in every published estimate (the post-2008 share collapse is well-documented and not the WTO causal channel). INFORMATIVE: an EM-peer panel (IND, BRA, MEX, IDN, MYS, THA, TUR, ZAF) gives a coarse global-TFP-cycle subtraction; this colours the diagnostics but does not gate the verdict.

What this design does NOT do

  • The original spec called for an industry-level event study using CIP industry-tariff-cut data — that source is not on disk in this build, so the country-level structural break is the best available proxy. The trade-share and TFP timing tests are necessary but not sufficient: any country-level event in 2001 (eg also: domestic reform deepening, demographic tailwind, global-credit-boom) is observationally indistinguishable here. The peer-net acceleration is intended to net out the global cycle, but cannot net out CHN-specific contemporaneous shocks.

Sources

  • PWT 10.01 rtfpna (vintage rtfpna@2026-04-27T090915Z.parquet).
  • PWT 10.01 csh_x (export share of expenditure-side GDP at current PPPs; vintage csh_x@2026-04-27T090915Z.parquet). (csh_x is a 0-1 fraction; multiplied by 100 to express in pp.) (WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.KD has only 1 non-null observation for CHN in the on-disk vintage, hence the substitution; PWT csh_x is the closest single-source equivalent.)

Notes

Maps the developmentalism school's WTO-accession-with-export-spillover claim to a Chinese industry-level event study around 2001. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.