Pre-registration
US business-dynamism measures — the firm-formation rate (new establishments per 1000 working-age population), the job- reallocation rate, and the share of employment in firms aged 0-5 — declined materially over 1980-2020. Across US states, the magnitude of the dynamism decline is positively associated with the cumulative growth of state-level occupational-licensing prevalence, federal-regulation cost burden allocated to the state, and industry-concentration indices. The Kirznerian-Austrian prediction is that entrepreneurship is a discovery process whose rate of operation depends on the openness of entry, and that rising regulatory and concentration barriers progressively suppress it. Pre-registered claim is that across 4 of 5 canonical metrics (firm formation rate, share of young-firm employment, job reallocation rate, occupational-licensing prevalence, industry concentration), the post-1980 trajectory shows statistically and economically significant deterioration.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Hypothesis is supported if >=4 of 5 metrics meet thresholds. A refuted verdict requires that 3+ metrics fail their thresholds — e.g. firm-formation rate did not meaningfully decline, OR occupational licensing did not grow as claimed, OR concentration did not rise across most sectors.
formal test & threshold
test: business_dynamism_decline_canonical_pattern_count threshold: metrics_met >= 4 of 5 → supported metrics_met <= 2 of 5 → refuted
Method
- Template
multi_metric_checklist- Sample
- 1 countries · 1980 – 2020
- Evidence type
- canonical_case_multi_metric
Multi-metric trajectory test: 5 metrics, hypothesis supported if >=4 show economically and statistically significant deterioration over 1980-2020. Heterodox / progressive null is that some dynamism decline reflects beneficial maturation (less Schumpeterian churn = more accumulated firm-specific human capital), and that the regulation-dynamism correlation is reverse-causal (high-tech economies need more regulation than low-tech economies).
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
firm_formation_rate outcome | bls:business_dynamics_statistics_firm_birthstier 1 | level |
young_firm_employment_share outcome | bls:business_dynamics_statistics_young_firm_employmenttier 1 | level |
job_reallocation_rate outcome | bls:business_dynamics_statistics_job_reallocationtier 1 | level |
occupational_licensing_prevalence treatment | academic:kleiner_krueger_occupational_licensingtier 4 | level |
industry_concentration_top4 treatment | us_census:economic_census_concentration_ratiostier 1 | level |
federal_regulation_cumulative_pages treatment | academic:mercatus_regdata_federal_registertier 4 | level |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — austrian_kirzner_entrepreneurship_business_dynamism_decline_us_1980_2020
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['bls:business_dynamics_statistics_firm_births', 'bls:business_dynamics_statistics_young_firm_employment', 'bls:business_dynamics_statistics_job_reallocation']
Pre-registration
- Claim: US business-dynamism measures — the firm-formation rate (new establishments per 1000 working-age population), the job- reallocation rate, and the share of employment in firms aged 0-5 — declined materially over 1980-2020. Across US states, the magnitude of the dynamism decline is positively associated with the cumulative growth of state-level occupational-licensing prevalence, federal-regulation cost burden allocated to the state, and industry-concentration indices. The Kirznerian-Austrian prediction is that entrepreneurship is a discovery process whose rate of operation depends on the openness of entry, and that rising regulatory and concentration barriers progressively suppress it. Pre-registered claim is that across 4 of 5 canonical metrics (firm formation rate, share of young-firm employment, job reallocation rate, occupational-licensing prevalence, industry concentration), the post-1980 trajectory shows statistically and economically significant deterioration.
- Falsification rule: Hypothesis is supported if >=4 of 5 metrics meet thresholds. A refuted verdict requires that 3+ metrics fail their thresholds — e.g. firm-formation rate did not meaningfully decline, OR occupational licensing did not grow as claimed, OR concentration did not rise across most sectors.
- Falsification test: business_dynamism_decline_canonical_pattern_count
Estimate
- Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['bls:business_dynamics_statistics_firm_births', 'bls:business_dynamics_statistics_young_firm_employment', 'bls:business_dynamics_statistics_job_reallocation']
Variables resolved
academic:kleiner_krueger_occupational_licensing→ occupational_licensing_prevalence (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=41)us_census:economic_census_concentration_ratios→ industry_concentration_top4 (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=41)
Variables missing data
bls:business_dynamics_statistics_firm_births(outcome, name=firm_formation_rate) — vintage not on diskbls:business_dynamics_statistics_young_firm_employment(outcome, name=young_firm_employment_share) — vintage not on diskbls:business_dynamics_statistics_job_reallocation(outcome, name=job_reallocation_rate) — vintage not on diskacademic:mercatus_regdata_federal_register(treatment, name=federal_regulation_cumulative_pages) — vintage not on disk
Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:00+00:00
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Kirzner (1973 Competition and Entrepreneurship; 1997 "Entrepreneurial Discovery and the Competitive Market Process"). Modern empirical adjacents: Decker-Haltiwanger-Jarmin-Miranda BDS analyses, Kleiner-Krueger on occupational licensing, Furman-Orszag on rising industry rents.