IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·catch_up_capital_deepening_not_tfp

Developmentalist catch-up episodes generate more of their early growth through capital deepening and labor reallocation than through sustained TFP growth, which helps explain why the growth premium fades near the frontier.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/catch_up_capital_deepening_not_tfp

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:rgdpo,ck,emp,hc,rtfpna']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:rgdpo,ck,emp,hc,rtfpna']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 1960 to 2024, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for country and decade.

what was measured
What changed
  • Developmentalist episode
What we checked
  • Growth decomposition shares
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

1 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/catch_up_capital_deepening_not_tfp
1007550250196019922024KORTWNCHNVNMMYSTHAIDN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show growth_decomposition_shares across 20 sampled countries over 1960–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for catch_up_capital_deepening_not_tfp. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/catch_up_capital_deepening_not_tfp/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:44Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Developmentalist catch-up episodes generate more of their early growth through capital deepening and labor reallocation than through sustained TFP growth, which helps explain why the growth premium fades near the frontier.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if capital deepening and labor/human-capital channels explain at least 60 percent of early developmentalist growth while TFP contribution falls in later windows. REFUTED if TFP explains most early growth and remains high after income convergence. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      developmentalist_growth_accounting_decomposition
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
country, decade
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 1960 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Growth accounting decomposition comparing early and later windows of developmentalist episodes.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
growth_decomposition_shares
outcome
pwt:rgdpotier 3
growth accounting shares from capital deepening, labor/human capital, and TFP
developmentalist_episode
treatment
movements:developmentalism_alignmenttier 5
policy_axes:industrial_policytier 5
country-year episode indicator
initial_income
control
pwt:rgdpo_poptier 3
log baseline GDP per capita

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — catch_up_capital_deepening_not_tfp

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:rgdpo,ck,emp,hc,rtfpna']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Developmentalist catch-up episodes generate more of their early growth through capital deepening and labor reallocation than through sustained TFP growth, which helps explain why the growth premium fades near the frontier.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if capital deepening and labor/human-capital channels explain at least 60 percent of early developmentalist growth while TFP contribution falls in later windows. REFUTED if TFP explains most early growth and remains high after income convergence. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: developmentalist_growth_accounting_decomposition

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['pwt:rgdpo,ck,emp,hc,rtfpna']

Variables resolved

  • movements:developmentalism_alignment; policy_axes:industrial_policy → developmentalist_episode (treatment, publisher=movements, n=61744)
  • pwt:rgdpo_pop → initial_income (controls, publisher=pwt, n=10399)

Variables missing data

  • pwt:rgdpo,ck,emp,hc,rtfpna (outcome, name=growth_decomposition_shares) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:44+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.