IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·costa_rica_high_wellbeing_low_throughput_path

Costa Rica's 1950-2023 development trajectory reaches US-comparable life expectancy at birth (within 1.5 years of US LE in 2010-2020) at roughly one-fifth the per-capita CO2 emissions and a UNDP HDI score within 0.05 of the US level by 2020.

The pattern shows that high-wellbeing trajectories at low material-throughput are feasible for at least one Latin American middle-income country, refuting strong claims that high wellbeing requires high-throughput consumption.

PARTIALengine/runs/costa_rica_high_wellbeing_low_throughput_path

PARTIAL — shape=bilateral, |Δ_log|=0.0263, ratio=1.03; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=bilateral, |Δ_log|=0.0263, ratio=1.03; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 2 country or place units from 1950 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Costa rica post 1948 indicator
What we checked
  • Life expectancy at birth
  • Co2 per capita
  • Undp hdi composite
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/costa_rica_high_wellbeing_low_throughput_path
1007550250195019872023CRIUSA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show life_expectancy_at_birth across 2 sampled countries over 1950–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for costa_rica_high_wellbeing_low_throughput_path. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/costa_rica_high_wellbeing_low_throughput_path/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-29T21:54:23Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Costa Rica's 1950-2023 development trajectory reaches US-comparable life expectancy at birth (within 1.5 years of US LE in 2010-2020) at roughly one-fifth the per-capita CO2 emissions and a UNDP HDI score within 0.05 of the US level by 2020. The pattern shows that high-wellbeing trajectories at low material-throughput are feasible for at least one Latin American middle-income country, refuting strong claims that high wellbeing requires high-throughput consumption.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED iff (a) mean(LE_CRI / LE_USA, 2010-2020) >= 0.98 AND (b) mean(CO2pc_CRI / CO2pc_USA, 2010-2020) <= 0.25 AND (c) HDI_CRI_2020 / HDI_USA_2020 >= 0.93. REFUTED if (a) fails OR (b) > 0.45 OR (c) < 0.85. PARTIAL between SUPPORTED and REFUTED bounds. METHOD_VALID requires WDI LE + OWID CO2pc + UNDP HDI on disk for CRI and USA across 2010-2020; if any missing, downgrade on that leg.

formal test & threshold
test:      costa_rica_three_leg_high_wellbeing_low_throughput_2010_2020
threshold: PRIMARY: LE-ratio >= 0.98 AND CO2pc-ratio <= 0.25 AND HDI-ratio >= 0.93.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
2 countries · 1950 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Bilateral CRI vs USA descriptive trajectory comparison 1950-2023. Three-leg test on the 2010-2020 mean: (i) LE ratio CRI/USA >= 0.98, (ii) CO2/cap ratio CRI/USA <= 0.25, (iii) HDI ratio CRI/USA >= 0.93. Distinct from the existing costa_rica_wellbeing_throughput_efficiency spec (topic=healthcare) which tests two legs (LE + CO2); this spec adds the HDI composite as a third independent wellbeing measure. Not causal -- institutional history is specific and unscalable; the bilateral comparison is offered as proof-of- concept for the feasibility claim, not as a transferable causal mechanism.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
life_expectancy_at_birth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
co2_per_capita
outcome
owid:co-emissions-per-capitatier 2
level
undp_hdi_composite
outcome
undp_hdi:hdi_compositetier 2
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
who_healthy_life_expectancy
outcome
who_gho:WHOSIS_000002tier 1
level
costa_rica_post_1948_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for CRI 1948 onwards (army abolition 1948, universal healthcare consolidation 1941, universal primary eductier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Notes

Distinct from costa_rica_wellbeing_throughput_efficiency (healthcare topic, two-leg test). This spec adds the UNDP HDI composite as a third independent wellbeing dimension and reframes the case as a growth-topic feasibility argument rather than a healthcare-topic outcomes argument. UNEP IRP material-footprint per capita is the canonical degrowth throughput measure; not on disk in repo's OWID vintage. CO2/cap used as proxy with conservative-direction substitution.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.