IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·costa_rica_social_democratic_model_1980_2024

Costa Rica's 1980-2024 development path — universal-health system (CCSS, established 1941, expanded), abolition of military 1948, large public-education investment, FDI promotion via free-zone regime (CINDE 1982, Intel 1996, medical-devices cluster 2000+), and central-bank-led inflation targeting since 2018 — produced a measurable life-expectancy and human-development premium relative to Central American peers while sustaining mid-quartile cumulative growth.

The pre-registered claim is (a) life expectancy at birth (CRI) exceeds Central American median by at least 4 years across the window, AND (b) Human Development Index (CRI) ranks above the Central American 75th percentile across all available years, AND (c) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 exceeds Central American median.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/costa_rica_social_democratic_model_1980_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Does the healthcare rule being tested improve access, cost, or outcomes for patients, or does it mainly shift pressure around the system?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Life expectancy birth
  • Hdi
  • Log income pc constant
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/costa_rica_social_democratic_model_1980_2024
1007550250198020022024CRIPANGTMHNDNICSLVDOM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show life_expectancy_birth across 7 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for costa_rica_social_democratic_model_1980_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/costa_rica_social_democratic_model_1980_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:44Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Costa Rica's 1980-2024 development path — universal-health system (CCSS, established 1941, expanded), abolition of military 1948, large public-education investment, FDI promotion via free-zone regime (CINDE 1982, Intel 1996, medical-devices cluster 2000+), and central-bank-led inflation targeting since 2018 — produced a measurable life-expectancy and human-development premium relative to Central American peers while sustaining mid-quartile cumulative growth. The pre-registered claim is (a) life expectancy at birth (CRI) exceeds Central American median by at least 4 years across the window, AND (b) Human Development Index (CRI) ranks above the Central American 75th percentile across all available years, AND (c) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 exceeds Central American median.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) mean life_expectancy_birth gap (CRI minus Central American median, 1980-2019) is below 4 years, OR (b) HDI ranks below the 75th percentile for any year with available data, OR (c) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 is below Central American median.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_plus_hdi_ranking
threshold: mean[life_expectancy_birth(CRI) - life_expectancy_birth(C.A._median), 1980-2019] >= 4.0 AND hdi_rank(CRI, year) >= C.A._75th_percentile for all years with data AND cumulative_log_gdp_pc(CRI, 1980-2019) >= C.A._median

Method

Template
panel_fe
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary: panel_fe of life-expectancy and log_gdp_pc on country and year FE plus CRI-indicator interaction. Secondary: descriptive HDI ranking by year.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
life_expectancy_birth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
hdi
outcome
undp_hdi:HDItier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
health_expenditure_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZStier 2
level
education_expenditure_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth
remittance_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — costa_rica_social_democratic_model_1980_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Costa Rica's 1980-2024 development path — universal-health system (CCSS, established 1941, expanded), abolition of military 1948, large public-education investment, FDI promotion via free-zone regime (CINDE 1982, Intel 1996, medical-devices cluster 2000+), and central-bank-led inflation targeting since 2018 — produced a measurable life-expectancy and human-development premium relative to Central American peers while sustaining mid-quartile cumulative growth. The pre-registered claim is (a) life expectancy at birth (CRI) exceeds Central American median by at least 4 years across the window, AND (b) Human Development Index (CRI) ranks above the Central American 75th percentile across all available years, AND (c) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 exceeds Central American median.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) mean life_expectancy_birth gap (CRI minus Central American median, 1980-2019) is below 4 years, OR (b) HDI ranks below the 75th percentile for any year with available data, OR (c) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 is below Central American median.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_plus_hdi_ranking

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy_birth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14443)
  • undp_hdi:HDI → hdi (outcome, publisher=undp_hdi, n=6314)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS → health_expenditure_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4811)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS → education_expenditure_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6235)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)
  • fred:GDPC1 → us_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=fred, n=560)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS → remittance_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8867)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:44+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests the CRI model on multiple human-development metrics.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.