IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023

Electricity access predicts lower child mortality.

PARTIALengine/runs/cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023

PARTIAL — coef=-0.8818, p=0; claim direction not auto-inferred

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether electricity access is actually linked to better or worse child mortality from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.8818, p=0; claim direction not auto-inferred

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 193 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Electricity access
What we checked
  • Child mortality
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023AFGAGOALBANDAREARGARM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show child_mortality across 193 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 1f1a183 · 2026-05-13T00:21:31Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:03Z

Electricity access predicts lower child mortality.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on electricity_access has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023
threshold: sign(electricity_access)=- and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
193 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
child_mortality
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORTtier 2
level
electricity_access
treatment
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZStier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.8818, p=0; claim direction not auto-inferred

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Electricity access predicts lower child mortality.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on electricity_access has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_electricity_access_child_mortality_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.8818
  • Std error: 0.09661
  • p-value: 0
  • Observations: 4655, countries: 157
  • Within R²: 0.323
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORT → child_mortality (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11166)
  • world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS → electricity_access (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7746)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:03+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: developmentalism, eco_socialist. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.