IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_mexico_fertility_decline_wages

Mexico's fertility decline (TFR 6.7 in 1970 to ~1.8 in 2023) is associated with a working- age share rise that should have translated into rising real wages 1995-2023, partially offset by US migration outflows.

The hypothesis predicts a positive panel-FE association between Mexican working-age share and real-wage growth, conditional on net migration to the US.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/demo_mexico_fertility_decline_wages

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.1242 (sign matches claim +), p=8.99e-47

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether working age population share is actually linked to better or worse real wage index from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.1242 (sign matches claim +), p=8.99e-47

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Working age population share
  • Total fertility rate
What we checked
  • Real wage index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_mexico_fertility_decline_wages
1007550250199020072023MEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_wage_index across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_mexico_fertility_decline_wages. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_mexico_fertility_decline_wages/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:35Z

Mexico's fertility decline (TFR 6.7 in 1970 to ~1.8 in 2023) is associated with a working- age share rise that should have translated into rising real wages 1995-2023, partially offset by US migration outflows. The hypothesis predicts a positive panel-FE association between Mexican working-age share and real-wage growth, conditional on net migration to the US.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if working-age share has positive coefficient on real-wage growth at p<0.10 in Mexico time series, controlling for productivity and net migration. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or absorbed by productivity control.

formal test & threshold
test:      time_series_mexico_dividend_wages
threshold: coef_wap > 0 AND p < 0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Mexico-only time series; panel_fe slot used for regression mechanics. Newey-West HAC SEs (lag 4). Single-country test; benchmark sensitivity to comparator LATAM specs.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_wage_index
outcome
ilostat:EAR_4MTH_SEX_RTtier 2
log
working_age_population_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZStier 2
level
total_fertility_rate
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.INtier 2
level
net_migration_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETMtier 2
level
labour_productivity
control
pwt:rgdpo_per_emptier 3
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_mexico_fertility_decline_wages

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.1242 (sign matches claim +), p=8.99e-47

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Mexico's fertility decline (TFR 6.7 in 1970 to ~1.8 in 2023) is associated with a working- age share rise that should have translated into rising real wages 1995-2023, partially offset by US migration outflows. The hypothesis predicts a positive panel-FE association between Mexican working-age share and real-wage growth, conditional on net migration to the US.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if working-age share has positive coefficient on real-wage growth at p<0.10 in Mexico time series, controlling for productivity and net migration. REFUTED if coefficient insignificant, wrong-signed, or absorbed by productivity control.
  • Falsification test: time_series_mexico_dividend_wages

Estimate

  • Method: statsmodels OLS time-series fallback
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.1242
  • Std error: 0.008651
  • p-value: 8.99e-47
  • Observations: 18, countries: 1
  • Within R²: 0.985
  • Fixed effects: entity=False, time=False
  • Clustering: HAC(maxlags=4)

Variables resolved

  • ilostat:EAR_4MTH_SEX_RT → real_wage_index (outcome, publisher=ilostat, n=912)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS → working_age_population_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16965)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.TFRT.IN → total_fertility_rate (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14445)
  • world_bank_wdi:SM.POP.NETM → net_migration_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17226)
  • pwt:rgdpo_per_emp → labour_productivity (controls, publisher=pwt, n=9529)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:35+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.