IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·dominican_tourism_freezone_model_1980_2024

The Dominican Republic's 1980-2024 development path combined an early free-zone regime (Law 4315 of 1955; expanded under Balaguer and especially under the 1990s textile boom), a sustained tourism- buildout (Punta Cana, Bávaro, Puerto Plata), and a Mirex-led remittance-receiving migrant infrastructure to deliver cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth in the top quartile of the Caribbean and top half of Latin America.

The pre-registered claim is (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 (DOM) exceeds the Caribbean median by at least 0.30 log-points AND exceeds the LATAM median, AND (b) tourism-arrivals growth produces a measurable services-sector employment expansion, AND (c) the growth is non-resource-rent: hydrocarbon-rents share of GDP remains below 1% across the window.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/dominican_tourism_freezone_model_1980_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 9 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log income pc constant
  • Tourism arrivals
  • Tourism receipts share exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/dominican_tourism_freezone_model_1980_2024
1007550250198020022024DOMJAMTTOBRBBHSHTICRI
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_constant across 9 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for dominican_tourism_freezone_model_1980_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/dominican_tourism_freezone_model_1980_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:47Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The Dominican Republic's 1980-2024 development path combined an early free-zone regime (Law 4315 of 1955; expanded under Balaguer and especially under the 1990s textile boom), a sustained tourism- buildout (Punta Cana, Bávaro, Puerto Plata), and a Mirex-led remittance-receiving migrant infrastructure to deliver cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth in the top quartile of the Caribbean and top half of Latin America. The pre-registered claim is (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 (DOM) exceeds the Caribbean median by at least 0.30 log-points AND exceeds the LATAM median, AND (b) tourism-arrivals growth produces a measurable services-sector employment expansion, AND (c) the growth is non-resource-rent: hydrocarbon-rents share of GDP remains below 1% across the window.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 1980-2019 (DOM) is not above Caribbean median AND LATAM median, OR (b) services value-added share of GDP does not rise at least 5 percentage points across the window, OR (c) tourism receipts share of exports does not exceed 25% by 2019.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_plus_descriptive_thresholds
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc(DOM, 1980-2019) - max(Caribbean_median, LATAM_median) >= 0.30 AND delta_services_share_gdp(DOM, 1980-2019) >= 5 AND tourism_receipts_share_exports(DOM, 2019) >= 25

Method

Template
panel_fe
Clustering
country
Sample
9 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Primary: panel_fe of log_gdp_pc on country and year FE plus DOM-indicator interaction. Secondary: descriptive ranking among Caribbean and LATAM. Tertiary: services-sector share trajectory.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
tourism_arrivals
outcome
world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.ARVLtier 2
log_level
tourism_receipts_share_exports
outcome
world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZStier 2
level
services_value_added_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflow_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
remittance_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — dominican_tourism_freezone_model_1980_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Dominican Republic's 1980-2024 development path combined an early free-zone regime (Law 4315 of 1955; expanded under Balaguer and especially under the 1990s textile boom), a sustained tourism- buildout (Punta Cana, Bávaro, Puerto Plata), and a Mirex-led remittance-receiving migrant infrastructure to deliver cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth in the top quartile of the Caribbean and top half of Latin America. The pre-registered claim is (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc_constant growth 1980-2019 (DOM) exceeds the Caribbean median by at least 0.30 log-points AND exceeds the LATAM median, AND (b) tourism-arrivals growth produces a measurable services-sector employment expansion, AND (c) the growth is non-resource-rent: hydrocarbon-rents share of GDP remains below 1% across the window.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) cumulative log_gdp_pc 1980-2019 (DOM) is not above Caribbean median AND LATAM median, OR (b) services value-added share of GDP does not rise at least 5 percentage points across the window, OR (c) tourism receipts share of exports does not exceed 25% by 2019.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_plus_descriptive_thresholds

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'context_inferred_treatment' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.ARVL → tourism_arrivals (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=5706)
  • world_bank_wdi:ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS → tourism_receipts_share_exports (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4663)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_value_added_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflow_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS → remittance_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8867)
  • fred:GDPC1 → us_gdp_growth (controls, publisher=fred, n=720)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, publisher=fred, n=360)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:47+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests the small-Caribbean-economy export-of-services model.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.