IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·jamaica_imf_debt_restructuring_2010_2024

Jamaica's 2010-2024 fiscal-consolidation programme (under successive IMF SBA, EFF, and PLL programmes; combined with two domestic-debt restructurings — JDX 2010 and NDX 2013) succeeded in reducing public debt as a share of GDP from above 140% (2012) to below 75% (2024) while sustaining positive cumulative real-GDP growth and avoiding hyperinflation.

The pre-registered claim is (a) gross general- government debt share of GDP fell by at least 50 percentage points 2012-2024, AND (b) cumulative log GDP per capita 2013-2019 (post-JDX/NDX, pre-COVID) is positive, AND (c) cpi inflation remained below 10% mean annualised across 2013-2019. The mechanism is a multi-cycle bondholder restructuring combined with primary- surplus discipline (>7% of GDP for several years), supported by an IMF-anchored political consensus. This is the canonical Caribbean case of orthodox debt sustainability.

PARTIALengine/runs/jamaica_imf_debt_restructuring_2010_2024

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.0648, ratio=0.937; threshold 140.0%, observed 6.5%; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 2005 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.0648, ratio=0.937; threshold 140.0%, observed 6.5%; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2005 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Gross general govt debt share income
  • Log income pc constant
  • Cpi inflation yoy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/jamaica_imf_debt_restructuring_2010_2024
1007550250200520152024JAMBRBBHSDOMTTO
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gross_general_govt_debt_share_gdp across 5 sampled countries over 2005–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for jamaica_imf_debt_restructuring_2010_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/jamaica_imf_debt_restructuring_2010_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:11:18Z

Jamaica's 2010-2024 fiscal-consolidation programme (under successive IMF SBA, EFF, and PLL programmes; combined with two domestic-debt restructurings — JDX 2010 and NDX 2013) succeeded in reducing public debt as a share of GDP from above 140% (2012) to below 75% (2024) while sustaining positive cumulative real-GDP growth and avoiding hyperinflation. The pre-registered claim is (a) gross general- government debt share of GDP fell by at least 50 percentage points 2012-2024, AND (b) cumulative log GDP per capita 2013-2019 (post-JDX/NDX, pre-COVID) is positive, AND (c) cpi inflation remained below 10% mean annualised across 2013-2019. The mechanism is a multi-cycle bondholder restructuring combined with primary- surplus discipline (>7% of GDP for several years), supported by an IMF-anchored political consensus. This is the canonical Caribbean case of orthodox debt sustainability.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) gross_general_govt_debt_share_gdp(JAM, 2024) is not at least 50 percentage points below the 2012 peak, OR (b) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2013-2019 (JAM) is negative, OR (c) mean cpi_inflation_yoy(JAM, 2013-2019) > 10.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_trajectory_thresholds
threshold: gross_general_govt_debt_share_gdp(JAM, 2012) - gross_general_govt_debt_share_gdp(JAM, 2024) >= 50 AND cumulative_log_gdp_pc(JAM, 2013-2019) > 0 AND mean_cpi_inflation_yoy(JAM, 2013-2019) <= 10

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
5 countries · 2005 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Primary: descriptive trajectory of debt, growth, and inflation series 2005-2024 with annotation of JDX (2010), NDX (2013), and IMF-programme transitions. Secondary: comparison to peer Caribbean average debt trajectory.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gross_general_govt_debt_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
primary_balance_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
gross_capital_formation_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
us_gdp_growth
control
fred:GDPC1tier 1
yoy_growth
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — jamaica_imf_debt_restructuring_2010_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.0648, ratio=0.937; threshold 140.0%, observed 6.5%; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Jamaica's 2010-2024 fiscal-consolidation programme (under successive IMF SBA, EFF, and PLL programmes; combined with two domestic-debt restructurings — JDX 2010 and NDX 2013) succeeded in reducing public debt as a share of GDP from above 140% (2012) to below 75% (2024) while sustaining positive cumulative real-GDP growth and avoiding hyperinflation. The pre-registered claim is (a) gross general- government debt share of GDP fell by at least 50 percentage points 2012-2024, AND (b) cumulative log GDP per capita 2013-2019 (post-JDX/NDX, pre-COVID) is positive, AND (c) cpi inflation remained below 10% mean annualised across 2013-2019. The mechanism is a multi-cycle bondholder restructuring combined with primary- surplus discipline (>7% of GDP for several years), supported by an IMF-anchored political consensus. This is the canonical Caribbean case of orthodox debt sustainability.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) gross_general_govt_debt_share_gdp(JAM, 2024) is not at least 50 percentage points below the 2012 peak, OR (b) cumulative log_gdp_pc 2013-2019 (JAM) is negative, OR (c) mean cpi_inflation_yoy(JAM, 2013-2019) > 10.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_trajectory_thresholds

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: JAM
  • treatment_value: 70.89999999999999
  • donor_pool_median: 75.64615384615385
  • ratio: 0.937258490949766
  • log_diff: -0.06479616397822063
  • n_donor_countries: 4
  • end_year_window: [2019, 2024]

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 140.0}

Variables resolved

  • imf:GGXWDG_NGDP → gross_general_govt_debt_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)

Variables missing data

  • imf:GGXONLB_NGDP (outcome, name=primary_balance_share_gdp)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS (outcome, name=gross_capital_formation_share_gdp)
  • fred:GDPC1 (controls, name=us_gdp_growth)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS (controls, name=us_policy_rate)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU (controls, name=oil_price)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T10:11:18+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Single-country descriptive spec; Jamaica's debt-restructuring trajectory is dispositive on its own.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.