IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·economic_freedom_corruption_decline

Rule-bound market-compatible institutions predict lower political corruption where legal constraints reduce discretionary exchange.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/economic_freedom_corruption_decline

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['vdem:v2x_corr']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether rule of law vdem is actually linked to better or worse control of corruption vdem from 1996 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['vdem:v2x_corr']

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 40 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Rule of law vdem
What we checked
  • Control of corruption vdem
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/economic_freedom_corruption_decline
1007550250199620102023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show control_of_corruption_vdem across 40 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for economic_freedom_corruption_decline. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/economic_freedom_corruption_decline/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:18Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Rule-bound market-compatible institutions predict lower political corruption where legal constraints reduce discretionary exchange.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if V-Dem rule of law positively predicts the transformed V-Dem control-of-corruption outcome at p<0.10 and at least two of three robustness outcomes have the same sign. REFUTED if the primary coefficient is negative and significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      vdem_rule_of_law_corruption_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
40 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Direct V-Dem institutional-quality upgrade with country and year fixed effects. Robustness checks repeat the sign test with public-sector corruption, executive corruption, and clientelism outcomes transformed so higher values mean less corruption/clientelism.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
control_of_corruption_vdem
outcome
vdem:v2x_corrtier 4
1 - political corruption index, higher means less corruption
rule_of_law_vdem
treatment
vdem:v2xcl_roltier 4
level, higher means stronger rule of law
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — economic_freedom_corruption_decline

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['vdem:v2x_corr']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Rule-bound market-compatible institutions predict lower political corruption where legal constraints reduce discretionary exchange.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if V-Dem rule of law positively predicts the transformed V-Dem control-of-corruption outcome at p<0.10 and at least two of three robustness outcomes have the same sign. REFUTED if the primary coefficient is negative and significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: vdem_rule_of_law_corruption_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['vdem:v2x_corr']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Variables missing data

  • vdem:v2x_corr (outcome, name=control_of_corruption_vdem) — vintage not on disk
  • vdem:v2xcl_rol (treatment, name=rule_of_law_vdem) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:18+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.