IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·economic_freedom_index_income_correlation

Economic-freedom indices (Fraser, Heritage) correlate positively with per-capita income levels across countries, with the strongest sub-indices being legal-system and sound-money.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/economic_freedom_index_income_correlation

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.1471 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00098

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.1471 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00098

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 44 country or place units from 1980 to 2022, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fraser efw aggregate
  • Heritage ief overall
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/economic_freedom_index_income_correlation
1007550250198020012022USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_ppp across 44 sampled countries over 1980–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for economic_freedom_index_income_correlation. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/economic_freedom_index_income_correlation/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:47Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Economic-freedom indices (Fraser, Heritage) correlate positively with per-capita income levels across countries, with the strongest sub-indices being legal-system and sound-money.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY: the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the headline economic-freedom coefficient on log GDP per capita is positive at p<0.05 and at least one of the legal-system or sound-money sub-index coefficients is also positive at p<0.10 in the same panel-FE design. It is REFUTED if the headline coefficient is non-positive at p<0.10 or if both named sub-indices are non-positive. Otherwise the result is PARTIAL because a positive headline correlation without sub-index decomposition does not fully test the claim.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE regression of log GDP per capita on Fraser EFW headline + sub-component scores 1971-2023, country and year FE, clustered SE; falsified if headline coefficient is not positive and significant at p<0.05.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
44 countries · 1980 – 2022
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel of log GDP per capita on Fraser/Heritage economic- freedom index level and sub-component scores (legal-system, sound-money, trade, regulation, government size). Tests both the headline correlation and the sub-index decomposition claim.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
fraser_efw_aggregate
treatment
fraser_efw:aggregate_scoretier 4
level
heritage_ief_overall
treatment
heritage_ief:overalltier 4
level
fraser_legal_system
treatment
fraser_efw:legal_system_property_rightstier 4
level
fraser_sound_money
treatment
fraser_efw:sound_moneytier 4
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — economic_freedom_index_income_correlation

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.1471 (sign matches claim +), p=0.00098

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Economic-freedom indices (Fraser, Heritage) correlate positively with per-capita income levels across countries, with the strongest sub-indices being legal-system and sound-money.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY: the hypothesis is SUPPORTED if the headline economic-freedom coefficient on log GDP per capita is positive at p<0.05 and at least one of the legal-system or sound-money sub-index coefficients is also positive at p<0.10 in the same panel-FE design. It is REFUTED if the headline coefficient is non-positive at p<0.10 or if both named sub-indices are non-positive. Otherwise the result is PARTIAL because a positive headline correlation without sub-index decomposition does not fully test the claim.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE regression of log GDP per capita on Fraser EFW headline + sub-component scores 1971-2023, country and year FE, clustered SE; falsified if headline coefficient is not positive and significant at p<0.05.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.1471
  • Std error: 0.04445
  • p-value: 0.00098
  • Observations: 770, countries: 35
  • Within R²: 0.219
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • fraser_efw:aggregate_score → fraser_efw_aggregate (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4557)
  • heritage_ief:overall → heritage_ief_overall (treatment, publisher=heritage_ief, n=525)
  • fraser_efw:legal_system_property_rights → fraser_legal_system (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4806)
  • fraser_efw:sound_money → fraser_sound_money (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4625)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:47+00:00

Notes

Seeded from a classical-liberal claim that Fraser/Heritage economic-freedom indices correlate with per-capita income and that legal-system and sound-money sub-indices do most of the work. Human review required to address obvious endogeneity before promotion.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.