IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·electricity_market_unbundling_price_reliability_panel

In a broad-country panel 1990-2020, electricity-market liberalisation episodes (vertical unbundling of generation/transmission/distribution, introduction of wholesale markets, and retail competition) predict lower industrial electricity prices and equal or improved system reliability (lower outage frequency/duration), controlling for fuel mix, generation capacity, and income level.

The directional claim is that liberalisation is associated with at least a 5% reduction in real industrial electricity prices and no significant deterioration in reliability metrics within 5 years.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/electricity_market_unbundling_price_reliability_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eia:industrial_electricity_price', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for SAIDI by country-year']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eia:industrial_electricity_price', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for SAIDI by country-year']

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 83 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Electricity liberalisation indicator
  • Years since liberalisation
What we checked
  • Industrial electricity price real
  • System average interruption duration index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 2 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/electricity_market_unbundling_price_reliability_panel
1007550250199020052020USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show industrial_electricity_price_real across 83 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for electricity_market_unbundling_price_reliability_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/electricity_market_unbundling_price_reliability_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 056ee96 · 2026-05-04T10:44:59Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:05Z

In a broad-country panel 1990-2020, electricity-market liberalisation episodes (vertical unbundling of generation/transmission/distribution, introduction of wholesale markets, and retail competition) predict lower industrial electricity prices and equal or improved system reliability (lower outage frequency/duration), controlling for fuel mix, generation capacity, and income level. The directional claim is that liberalisation is associated with at least a 5% reduction in real industrial electricity prices and no significant deterioration in reliability metrics within 5 years.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β1 (liberalisation) is negative and significant at p<0.10 for industrial prices and not positive and significant for SAIDI (i.e. prices fall without reliability loss). PARTIAL if prices fall but SAIDI rises significantly (efficiency-reliability trade-off). REFUTED if β1 is positive and significant for prices at p<0.10. INFORMATIVE: excluding UK and Chile should not eliminate the negative price effect; if it does, the result is driven by two dominant cases.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_electricity_liberalisation_price_reliability
threshold: β_liberalisation (industrial price) < 0 at p<=0.10  AND β_liberalisation (SAIDI) not > 0 at p<=0.10  AND Ex-UK-Chile robustness retains negative price effect.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
83 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with staggered adoption: price = β0 + β1*liberalisation + β2*years_since + controls + FE. Robustness: (1) exclude UK and Chile (dominant early liberalisers); (2) use synthetic control for each adopter; (3) control for renewable-energy share and carbon-price exposure; (4) separate effects for generation-only vs full unbundling; (5) use household prices instead of industrial prices as secondary outcome.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
industrial_electricity_price_real
outcome
eia:industrial_electricity_pricetier 1
log
system_average_interruption_duration_index
outcome
constructed:indicator = 1 for SAIDI by country-yeartier 5
log
electricity_liberalisation_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for GBR from 1990; NOR from 1991; SWE from 1996; FIN from 1995; ESP from 1998; PRT from 2006; ITA from 199tier 5
indicator
years_since_liberalisation
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for GBR from 1990; NOR from 1991; SWE from 1996; FIN from 1995; ESP from 1998; PRT from 2006; ITA from 199tier 5
years_since
fossil_fuel_share_generation
control
owid:share-elec-by-sourcetier 2
level
installed_capacity_per_capita
control
constructed:indicator = 1 for installed generation capacity per capitatier 5
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — electricity_market_unbundling_price_reliability_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eia:industrial_electricity_price', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for SAIDI by country-year']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In a broad-country panel 1990-2020, electricity-market liberalisation episodes (vertical unbundling of generation/transmission/distribution, introduction of wholesale markets, and retail competition) predict lower industrial electricity prices and equal or improved system reliability (lower outage frequency/duration), controlling for fuel mix, generation capacity, and income level. The directional claim is that liberalisation is associated with at least a 5% reduction in real industrial electricity prices and no significant deterioration in reliability metrics within 5 years.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β1 (liberalisation) is negative and significant at p<0.10 for industrial prices and not positive and significant for SAIDI (i.e. prices fall without reliability loss). PARTIAL if prices fall but SAIDI rises significantly (efficiency-reliability trade-off). REFUTED if β1 is positive and significant for prices at p<0.10. INFORMATIVE: excluding UK and Chile should not eliminate the negative price effect; if it does, the result is driven by two dominant cases.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_electricity_liberalisation_price_reliability

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['eia:industrial_electricity_price', 'constructed: indicator = 1 for SAIDI by country-year']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: indicator = 1 for GBR from 1990; NOR from 1991; SWE from 1996; FIN from 1995; ESP from 1998; PRT from 2006; ITA from 1999; NLD from 1998; DEU from 1998; AUT from 2001; BEL from 1999; FRA from 2007; JPN from 2000; KOR from 2001; CHL from 1982; ARG from 1992; BRA from 1998; COL from 1994; PER from 2002; PHL from 2001; IND from 2003 → electricity_liberalisation_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=2573)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for GBR from 1990; NOR from 1991; SWE from 1996; FIN from 1995; ESP from 1998; PRT from 2006; ITA from 1999; NLD from 1998; DEU from 1998; AUT from 2001; BEL from 1999; FRA from 2007; JPN from 2000; KOR from 2001; CHL from 1982; ARG from 1992; BRA from 1998; COL from 1994; PER from 2002; PHL from 2001; IND from 2003 → years_since_liberalisation (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=2573)
  • owid:share-elec-by-source → fossil_fuel_share_generation (controls, publisher=owid, n=6460)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for installed generation capacity per capita → installed_capacity_per_capita (controls, publisher=constructed, n=2573)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Variables missing data

  • eia:industrial_electricity_price (outcome, name=industrial_electricity_price_real) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for SAIDI by country-year (outcome, name=system_average_interruption_duration_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:05+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.