IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidy

In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy.

The claim is directional: a one-standard-deviation improvement in market-access and competition conditions predicts a larger ECI gain over the subsequent decade than a one-standard-deviation increase in subsidy intensity, controlling for initial complexity, income, and human capital.

PARTIALengine/runs/export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidy

PARTIAL — coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 45 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Market access and competition index
  • Subsidy industrial policy index
Possible pathway
  • High tech export share
  • Number of export products
What we checked
  • Economic complexity index
  • Export diversification theil
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

10 input datasets, 3 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidy
1007550250199020052020ARGBGDBGRBRACHLCHNCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show economic_complexity_index across 45 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidy. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidy/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:37Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy. The claim is directional: a one-standard-deviation improvement in market-access and competition conditions predicts a larger ECI gain over the subsequent decade than a one-standard-deviation increase in subsidy intensity, controlling for initial complexity, income, and human capital.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β1 (market access) is positive and significant at p<0.05 while β2 (subsidy) is insignificant or negative, AND |β1| > |β2|. PARTIAL if both are positive and significant but β1 > β2. REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant or if β2 is positive and significantly larger than β1. INFORMATIVE: excluding China should not flip the sign of β1; if it does, the result is a China-driven artefact.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_decomposition_eci_market_access_vs_subsidy
threshold: β_market_access > 0 at p<=0.05  AND |β_market_access| > |β_subsidy|  AND Ex-China robustness retains sign of β_market_access.

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
45 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with decade-long differences (1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2020) to reduce noise and capture medium-run structural change. Primary specification: ΔECI = β1*Δmarket_access + β2*Δsubsidy_index + controls + FE. Mechanism decomposition via high-tech export share and product-count channels. Robustness: exclude China (dominates ECI dynamics) and check if result holds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
economic_complexity_index
outcome
constructed:Atlas of Economic Complexity (Harvard CID)tier 5
level
export_diversification_theil
outcome
un_comtrade:export_product_concentrationtier 2
theil_index
market_access_and_competition_index
treatment
constructed:composite of foreign market access (tariff faced abroad, FTA depth) and domestic entry barriers (OECD PMR, WBG Doing Bustier 5
z_score_composite
subsidy_industrial_policy_index
treatment
constructed:state aid / GDP, directed credit, and sectoral subsidy intensity (CRDF/ITC + Fraser EFW Area 4)tier 5
z_score_composite
high_tech_export_share
channel
wits:high_tech_exportstier 2
pct_total_exports
number_of_export_products
channel
un_comtrade:unique_hs6_productstier 2
count
initial_eci
control
constructed:Atlas of Economic Complexitytier 5
5yr_lagged_level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
fdi_inflows_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
exchange_rate_volatility
control
imf:exchange_rate_volatilitytier 2
5yr_sd

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — export_complexity_market_access_vs_subsidy

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+4.68e-14, p=0.393; effect magnitude effectively zero

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In a panel of middle-income countries 1990-2020, export complexity (Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity Index) rises more following reforms that improve foreign market access and reduce domestic entry barriers than following expansions of subsidy-only industrial policy. The claim is directional: a one-standard-deviation improvement in market-access and competition conditions predicts a larger ECI gain over the subsequent decade than a one-standard-deviation increase in subsidy intensity, controlling for initial complexity, income, and human capital.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β1 (market access) is positive and significant at p<0.05 while β2 (subsidy) is insignificant or negative, AND |β1| > |β2|. PARTIAL if both are positive and significant but β1 > β2. REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant or if β2 is positive and significantly larger than β1. INFORMATIVE: excluding China should not flip the sign of β1; if it does, the result is a China-driven artefact.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_decomposition_eci_market_access_vs_subsidy

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +4.68e-14
  • Std error: 5.477e-14
  • p-value: 0.393
  • Observations: 455, countries: 38
  • Within R²: 0.016
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • un_comtrade:export_product_concentration → export_diversification_theil (outcome, publisher=wits, n=4669)
  • world_bank_wits:high_tech_exports → high_tech_export_share (decomposition_channels, publisher=wits, n=3185)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi_inflows_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: Atlas of Economic Complexity (Harvard CID) (outcome, name=economic_complexity_index) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: composite of foreign market access (tariff faced abroad, FTA depth) and domestic entry barriers (OECD PMR, WBG Doing Business) (treatment, name=market_access_and_competition_index) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: state aid / GDP, directed credit, and sectoral subsidy intensity (CRDF/ITC + Fraser EFW Area 4) (treatment, name=subsidy_industrial_policy_index) — vintage not on disk
  • un_comtrade:unique_hs6_products (decomposition_channels, name=number_of_export_products) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: Atlas of Economic Complexity (controls, name=initial_eci) — vintage not on disk
  • imf_weo:exchange_rate_volatility (controls, name=exchange_rate_volatility) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:37+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data readiness: - Harvard CID Atlas ECI (pending direct fetcher; canonical source used) - UN Comtrade export diversity / product counts (ready) - World Bank WITS high-tech exports, tariff data (ready) - OECD PMR entry barriers (ready) - PWT hc, WDI GDP pc, FDI inflows (ready)

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.